Calumet (CLMT) Gets 82% Price Target Hike to $60 by H.C. Wainwright

NEW YORK, March 31 —

H.C. Wainwright raised its price target on Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) to $60 from $33 — an 82% increase — after the specialty refiner posted a $115mn swing in cash from operations to $108.9mn in 2025 from negative $6.4mn in 2024, a reversal that Wainwright argues substantially alters the stock's risk profile.

The upgrade arrives as Calumet's Montana Renewables subsidiary approaches completion of the MaxSAF 150 sustainable aviation fuel expansion, scheduled for Q2 2026, which would meaningfully increase output capacity in a market where domestic SAF production is falling short of accelerating airline demand under tightening regulatory mandates. Crude oil near $95/barrel, sustained by geopolitical pressure across multiple producing regions, has simultaneously widened crack spreads and lifted margins in Calumet's conventional specialty operations, a combination that reinforces the cash generation story underpinning Wainwright's upgraded view. Multiple analysts have raised price targets on CLMT in recent weeks, building a coordinated upgrade cycle — notable given that the stock was trading below $20 as recently as mid-2024, when operating losses and elevated leverage dominated the narrative. At $35.04, CLMT trades at a 42% discount to the new Wainwright target, carrying a 103.1x forward P/E against $4.1bn in TTM revenue, a multiple that prices in SAF optionality while still embedding skepticism accumulated during two consecutive years of negative operating cash flow.

The single metric to track is the MaxSAF 150 completion date and first production figures out of Montana Renewables, expected in Q2 2026. An on-time startup would validate the core bull thesis — that the subsidiary has completed its transition from capital sink to cash contributor — and would likely catalyze another round of analyst target increases. Any schedule slip, even by one quarter, would revive execution risk concerns that weighed on the stock through 2023 and 2024. Investors should also monitor Q1 2026 operating cash flow, due before the expansion opens, for confirmation that the 2025 improvement was structural rather than a product of one-time items. At 103.1x forward P/E, the stock carries limited tolerance for a negative surprise on either the cash flow trajectory or the expansion timeline.

Calumet does not yet have a Basis Report analysis on file — generate a full breakdown at /stock/clmt.

Basis Report does not hold positions in securities discussed. This is not investment advice.