Almonty Industries Gets 35% Analyst Target Hike as Tungsten Crisis Deepens
NEW YORK, March 26 —
B. Riley raised Almonty Industries' price target 35% to $23, the largest tungsten sector revision in six months. Analyst revisions this large usually come before companies announce production milestones or financing deals. The stock trades at $15. That creates a 53% gap suggesting B. Riley knows something the market doesn't.
What the Street Believes
Wall Street views Almonty as a speculative tungsten play with binary risk around the Sangdong mine development in South Korea. The consensus story focuses on construction delays, permitting problems, and whether the company can finance full production without issuing new shares. Most analysts expect production to start in late 2025 at the earliest. They're pricing in substantial development risks.
This cautious view reflects broader skepticism about junior miners promising critical mineral production during geopolitical supply disruptions. The market has been burned by ambitious timelines from development-stage mining companies. Investors now demand proof before believing delivery promises.
What the Data Shows
The street models Almonty as a 2026 production story with substantial financing gaps. But B. Riley's 35% target revision suggests either production timelines are accelerating or the strategic value is being recognized. The upgrade comes as tungsten prices hit multi-year highs above $350 per metric ton unit. Chinese export restrictions and defense industry stockpiling are driving the rally.
"B. Riley Raises Price Target on Almonty Industries to $23 From $17, Keeps Buy Rating"
The timing reflects Almonty's position as the only Western tungsten producer with near-term production capability outside China's control. Sangdong holds 50% of the world's largest tungsten reserve base. Yet the market still prices the asset as if production remains theoretical. B. Riley's revision suggests this disconnect is closing. This likely comes through faster development milestones or strategic partnerships with defense contractors needing supply security.
Why This Changes the Calculus
If B. Riley's analysis proves correct, Almonty shifts from a speculative development play into a strategic tungsten supplier during a supply crisis. The defense applications alone justify premium valuations during geopolitical tensions. Tungsten is critical for armor-piercing ammunition and aerospace components. China controls 85% of global tungsten supply. That makes Almonty's Western production capacity a national security asset.
Watch construction progress at Sangdong and any announcements around offtake agreements with defense contractors. First concentrate production could trigger a fundamental rerating. Investors would realize Almonty's monopolistic position in Western tungsten supply. Watch for Q2 development updates and any strategic partnership announcements that validate B. Riley's bullish revision.
The Counterargument
Bears argue that mining development timelines consistently disappoint. This is especially true for complex metallurgical operations like tungsten processing. Sangdong's previous operations included environmental challenges and community opposition that could return during ramp-up phases. Capital requirements for full production may force dilutive equity raises. This would negate the tungsten price advantage. The counterargument has merit given the mining sector's execution track record. But it ignores the strategic premium attached to critical mineral supply during supply chain weaponization.
Verdict
B. Riley's 35% target increase signals positive developments that contradict the m