Equitable Holdings Weighs Buyback Before Corebridge Merger as Raymond James Lifts Target to $58

NEW YORK, April 16 —

Raymond James upgraded Equitable Holdings (NYSE: EQH) to Strong Buy from Market Perform this week, setting a $58 price target on the strength of the pending Corebridge merger. Separately, management has signaled it is weighing a share repurchase before the Corebridge deal closes, according to Stock Titan and TipRanks. The upgrade and the prospect of shrinking the share count ahead of a combination that would create a $22 billion US insurance platform have widened an already fractured sell-side picture. At least one desk carries a $31 target, and Barclays remains bearish.

Background

Equitable Holdings and Corebridge would combine into what Reuters characterized as a roughly $22 billion US insurance group, merging two large life-and-annuity franchises under one roof. Wall Street has framed the deal as accretive over time, expecting the combined company to cut duplicative distribution, technology, and back-office costs.

Management's signal that it is weighing a stock repurchase before closing breaks from the conservative playbook acquirers usually follow ahead of a large stock-or-mixed deal. Stock Titan and TipRanks reported the company is evaluating buybacks ahead of closing. Acquirers and merger-of-equals parties typically pause repurchases during deal review to preserve cash, protect optics, and avoid sending signals about relative value.

Separately, Halper Sadeh LLC disclosed an investigation into whether Equitable shareholders are receiving a fair price in the proposed transaction, according to a Business Wire release. Such investigations are routine during public-company mergers and do not constitute evidence of wrongdoing. They do, however, add procedural risk around the exchange ratio.

Analyst View

The sell side on Equitable is split. Raymond James upgraded the shares to Strong Buy with a $58 price target, citing the merger outlook, per Investing.com and GuruFocus. That target sits near the $57.50 consensus and implies roughly 38% upside from the current $41.98 level. Barclays has moved the other way with what MarketBeat summarized as a pessimistic forecast. A separate desk carries a $31 target — roughly 26% below the current price.

The gap between the $31 low and $58 high is unusually wide for a large-cap insurer. A spread that size typically reflects real disagreement about standalone earnings power, the deal exchange ratio, or the odds the Corebridge merger closes on current terms. The $57.50 consensus still implies roughly 37% upside, but that average now spans views that diverge by close to the stock's entire market value.

What the Data Shows

The quantitative case turns on four points. First, valuation: the shares trade at approximately 4.7x forward earnings, a level that prices in doubt about earnings power rather than a typical life-insurance multiple. Second, the trailing-twelve-month revenue base is roughly $11.7bn, with an 11.3% gross margin and reported free cash flow of approximately negative $9.7bn on a trailing basis — a figure driven by insurance-accounting volatility, not operating cash burn in the industrial sense. Third, earnings have missed consensus four quarters running: $1.73 against $1.75 expected, then $1.48 against $1.61, $1.10 against $1.30, and $1.30 against $1.48. Fourth, insiders sold roughly $1.9M of stock in the past week.

The pre-close buyback signal is the most telling data point. If management believes the standalone equity is undervalued at $41.98, repurchasing shares before a stock-or-mixed close shrinks the EQH base that exchanges into the combined entity. That transfers prospective synergy value to legacy EQH holders. The implied view aligns with Raymond James at $58, not the $31 bear target. The insider selling cuts the other way and is hard to square with the buyback logic, though the dollar amount is small relative to the company's market capitalization and may reflect pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plans rather than fresh conviction.

Risks

The bear case is specific. Four consecutive earnings misses suggest either a run-rate the sell side has been slow to mark down or a rate-and-equity-market backdrop squeezing variable annuity economics. A 4.7x forward multiple can compress further if 2026 earnings are revised lower, particularly if Quiver Quantitative's framing of 2026 profitability pressure proves correct. The reported $9.7bn negative trailing free cash flow figure, while largely an artifact of insurance-accounting movements, will screen poorly for any capital allocator running quantitative filters.

Deal risk is also live. The Halper Sadeh investigation, even as a procedural matter, raises the possibility that the exchange ratio is revisited. A wider regulatory review, a shareholder vote that forces repricing, or a delay in closing would strip the merger as a near-term catalyst and leave the stock trading on standalone results that have disappointed for four straight quarters.

The $31 target and Barclays' bearish stance encode these risks. Whether they prove right depends on how the merger ratio is ultimately set. If the deal closes on current terms, the bear targets look like misjudgments. If terms are renegotiated lower for EQH holders, or if the transaction breaks, the fundamental concerns become the operative ones.

Outlook

Equitable Holdings is trading as if the Corebridge merger is the binding constraint on valuation. Management's apparent willingness to buy back stock ahead of close suggests it disagrees. A pre-close repurchase at $41.98 reads as an assertion that the merger ratio understates EQH's contribution to the combined company. The contrary signal — insider selling of roughly $1.9M in the past week — is small in context but worth noting. Raymond James sits at $58, Barclays is bearish, and a separate desk is at $31. Until closing conditions and exchange terms are clarified, the shares will likely trade on each new data point around deal structure rather than on quarterly earnings. The buyback decision, if formally announced, would be the clearest signal of how management values its own equity relative to the merger math.

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Basis Report does not hold positions in securities discussed. This is not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Equitable Holdings considering a buyback before the Corebridge merger closes?

Stock Titan and TipRanks report that management is evaluating a repurchase program before the deal closes. A pre-close buyback would reduce EQH's share count at $41.98, altering the effective economics of a stock or mixed-consideration merger. No authorization has been formally disclosed in an SEC filing as of this writing.

What is Raymond James's thesis on the upgrade to Strong Buy at $58?

Raymond James cited the Corebridge merger outlook when it lifted the rating from Market Perform, per Investing.com and GuruFocus. At $58, the target is roughly 38% above the $41.98 spot price and about 14% above the $57.50 consensus. The firm frames the combination as a scale deal that lifts return on equity through synergies.

Why is there such a wide spread in analyst targets on EQH?

Published targets this week range from roughly $31 at one desk to $58 at Raymond James, with Barclays on the cautious side per MarketBeat. The disagreement centers on merger math: whether the exchange ratio and expected synergies are accretive to EQH holders, or whether the combination dilutes them at a point when the standalone franchise already trades at 4.7x forward earnings.

How large will the combined Equitable-Corebridge company be?

Reuters reported the merger would create a US insurance group valued at roughly $22bn, combining Equitable's variable annuity and retirement platform with the former AIG life-and-retirement business that Corebridge now operates.

Should investors be concerned about the reported negative free cash flow of $9.7bn?

Free cash flow reported under standard conventions is a poor standalone metric for life insurers. It captures reserve movements and separate-account transfers that do not reflect underlying cash economics. Earnings quality, capital ratios, and statutory surplus are more telling indicators for this sector. The figure deserves context, not alarm.