Fastly Stock Up 133% YTD Hits 4-Year High Into Wednesday Earnings
NEW YORK, April 29 —
Fastly (FSLY) jumped 8.4% to a 4-year high ahead of Wednesday's quarterly print, after a products showcase and a new LaLiga AI partnership.
- Shares at $26.39, up 133% year-to-date and at the highest level in four years
- Trading at 5.21x sales and 71.5x forward earnings on $624mn TTM revenue
- Q1 results land Wednesday: revenue growth, enterprise customer count, and forward guide are the three lines that matter
What Actually Happened
Two things happened in the same week, and the tape liked both. Fastly ran a products showcase and announced an AI partnership with LaLiga, the kind of enterprise logo that lets a content delivery vendor charge premium pricing on inference traffic. The 8.4% session move pushed the stock to levels not seen since 2022, when the entire CDN cohort was still riding the post-pandemic streaming bid.
The setup matters more than the announcements. Fastly has spent three years rebuilding credibility after the June 2021 outage and a string of guidance cuts that broke the growth-stock thesis. A 133% YTD rally says some of that credibility is back. Wednesday's print is where the market finds out whether the multiple has run ahead of the fundamentals.
The Catch
5.21x sales is not a wreck-of-a-stock multiple anymore. Fastly bottomed at roughly 1.5x sales in 2024 when investors were pricing it as structurally challenged. At 71.5x forward earnings on $624mn of trailing revenue, the stock is now priced like the LaLiga deal was already booked. Any guidance softness, especially on enterprise customer additions, gets punished harder at $26 than it would have at $7.
Bottom Line
The stock is more interesting today than it was six months ago, but harder to underwrite at this level. Growth investors who missed the move have a binary event Wednesday and no margin of safety. Value investors lost their entry point sometime in February. The number to watch on the print: enterprise customer count. That's the line that has historically moved Fastly's multiple in either direction.
A full Basis Report analysis with a BUY rating sits at /reports/ai9WwL0a4NYyQzGhBFAacMnk for readers who want the underlying model before Wednesday.
Basis Report does not hold positions in securities discussed. This is not investment advice.