POETNews Brief
UPDATE April 28: Marvell Technology has cancelled purchase orders with POET Technologies, triggering the stock's biggest single-day drop and directly undermining the bullish thesis outlined above. Celestial AI has also reportedly cancelled orders, compounding concerns about the durability of POET's partnership pipeline. The stock is reversing the doubling that formed the core of this article's analysis, with retail investors defending the name even as institutional confidence in the order backlog erodes.

This changes the investment case materially. The original thesis rested on new orders as validation of POET's optical interposer technology and a signal that revenue growth was accelerating. With two key customers walking away, that validation has collapsed. The question is no longer whether POET can scale production to meet demand — it's whether demand exists at all.

Watch for any official POET disclosure on remaining backlog and whether additional customers follow Marvell and Celestial AI out the door. The next earnings call will need to address replacement revenue or the stock has further to fall.

POET Technologies Doubles in One Week on New Orders, but Revenue Is Just $1 Million

POET Technologies (POET) surged 120.5% in a single week, hitting an 11-year high after announcing new supply and order deals.

POET Technologies Inc. (POET) — stock analysis
The numbers
  • Stock gained 120.5% over the past week, including a 28.8% rally on Friday alone, closing at $15.1
  • Forward P/E is literally infinite. TTM revenue is $1mn. This is a pre-revenue valuation on a company that's been public for over a decade.
  • Watch for: customer identity, deal revenue size, and next quarterly earnings to confirm whether these orders translate to a real backlog

What Actually Happened

POET makes optical interposers — chips that integrate electronics and photonics on a single platform. Data centers need them because electrical signals bottleneck where copper meets fiber optics. POET's design cuts out packaging steps that drive up the cost of traditional optical modules.

The supply and order announcements gave the market something new: paying customers. POET has spent years selling a promising technology with no revenue behind it. Actual orders change that calculus. The stock moved like a binary event because, for POET, it was one.

Friday's 28.8% jump came late in the week. That pattern points to institutional buyers adding positions, not just retail traders chasing momentum into the close.

The Catch

A company doing $1mn in trailing twelve-month revenue just doubled in a week. The forward P/E is infinite because analysts can't model earnings that don't exist yet. Jim Cramer said he's "not ready to recommend chasing" at these levels. His track record is its own conversation, but the caution is warranted.

POET has been public for over a decade and is only now booking its first real orders. The optical interconnect market is crowded. Broadcom, Marvell, and Coherent all sell here with actual revenue at scale. Supply deal announcements without disclosed dollar values are the corporate equivalent of "trust me." Until POET reports a quarter with concrete backlog numbers, the stock price is a bet on what the company might become — not what it is.

Bottom Line

The technology story holds up. Data center optical interconnects are a real growth market, and POET's interposer design has cost advantages on paper. But 120% in a week prices in years of execution that hasn't happened yet.

This is a stock for investors who size positions knowing they could lose half the gain on one bad earnings call. The metric that matters: quarterly revenue. When it moves from $1mn trailing to something with a second digit, the thesis has legs. Until then, it's a trade, not an investment.

POET Technologies doesn't have a Basis Report yet. Generate a free POET analysis here to see the full financial picture.

Basis Report does not hold positions in securities discussed. This is not investment advice.

Sources & filings