SHOP · Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Shopify DCF Valuation: Intrinsic Value Calculator

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) DCF model with live financials. See the pre-loaded intrinsic value estimate below, then adjust growth and discount rate assumptions in the full calculator.

DCF Snapshot

Current Price$123.56

Market Cap$160.3B

TTM Free Cash Flow$1.3B

Intrinsic Value / Share$44.73

Upside / Downside-63.8%

Assumptions

FCF Growth Rate22%

Discount Rate (WACC)12%

Terminal Growth3%

Projection Period10 years

These are conservative starting assumptions. Adjust them in the full calculator to test your own thesis.

What Drives Shopify's DCF

Shopify is the leading e-commerce platform for independent merchants and mid-market brands, processing over $300B in annual GMV. Revenue grew 34% to over $9B annually, split between subscription solutions and Merchant Solutions (payments, capital, shipping, fulfillment). Gross margins are approximately 48%, below pure-SaaS peers because Merchant Solutions (lower-margin payments and logistics) is the faster-growing segment. Key assumptions: GMV growth sustains 20%+ as Shopify penetrates enterprise accounts (Shopify Plus) and international markets, Shopify Payments take-rate expands as merchants adopt more platform financial services, and the logistics footprint (post-Deliverr integration) generates incremental margin.

Adjust these assumptions in the full DCF calculator →Get the full analysis →

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