TSLA · Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Tesla DCF Valuation: Intrinsic Value Calculator

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) DCF model with live financials. See the pre-loaded intrinsic value estimate below, then adjust growth and discount rate assumptions in the full calculator.

DCF Snapshot

Current Price$348.95

Market Cap$1.3T

TTM Free Cash Flow$3.7B

Intrinsic Value / Share$32.59

Upside / Downside-90.7%

Assumptions

FCF Growth Rate18%

Discount Rate (WACC)12%

Terminal Growth3%

Projection Period10 years

These are conservative starting assumptions. Adjust them in the full calculator to test your own thesis.

What Drives Tesla's DCF

Tesla's DCF is uniquely sensitive to assumptions about vehicle delivery growth and margin trajectory. Automotive revenue dominates (~85% of sales), with Energy Generation & Storage growing rapidly from a smaller base. Gross margins compressed from 25%+ to the high teens as Tesla cut prices to defend market share. Key variables: delivery volume growth (1.8M units in 2024), margin recovery as new models (Cybertruck, next-gen platform) scale, and optionality from energy storage, FSD licensing, and robotaxi. A higher discount rate reflects execution risk and Elon Musk key-person dependence.

Adjust these assumptions in the full DCF calculator →Get the full TSLA analysis →

More tools & guides

DCF Calculator

Run a full DCF on any ticker with live data

DCF Analysis Guide

The complete guide to building and stress-testing a DCF model

Intrinsic Value Calculator

Compare DCF, earnings power, and asset-based valuations side by side