Updated weekly · Earnings season
Earnings Surprises Leaderboard
The biggest EPS beats and misses each earnings season, ranked by surprise magnitude. Click any column header to re-sort.
What is an earnings surprise?
EPS surprise % explained
An earnings surprise is the difference between a company's reported EPS (earnings per share) and the analyst consensus estimate. Surprise % = (Actual EPS − Estimated EPS) / |Estimated EPS| × 100. A +20% surprise means the company earned 20% more than analysts expected. Negative surprises — misses — are calculated the same way but produce negative values.
Why magnitude matters
Small beats (1–3%) are often priced in — companies guide analysts lower to manufacture a beat. Large surprises (10%+) are harder to manufacture and represent genuine outperformance. This leaderboard focuses on magnitude: the stocks furthest from consensus are the ones worth investigating for fundamental re-rating potential.
1-day return as signal
The 1-day return on earnings day reflects how much of the surprise the market had already priced in. A +20% EPS surprise with a flat stock price suggests the beat was anticipated. A +5% surprise with a +10% stock move suggests the market upgraded its forward estimates — often more important than the raw EPS number.
Using this leaderboard
Sort by Surprise % to find the biggest dislocations from consensus. Sort by 1-Day Return to see which beats and misses moved stocks most. Click any ticker to open the full stock intelligence page with valuation metrics, DCF analysis, and capital allocation grade. Use the beats list as a starting screen, not a buy signal — verify whether the surprise came from revenue or cost cuts before acting.
Dig deeper on any earnings winner
A large earnings beat is a starting point, not a thesis. Get a full equity research report — valuation, competitive moat, capital allocation, and risk factors — generated in under 60 seconds.
Generate a free report →Check earnings quality next
Earnings surprises don't tell you if the earnings are real. The Earnings Quality Scorer checks cash conversion, GAAP vs adjusted gap, and DSO trends — to validate that the beat is backed by actual cash.
Open Earnings Quality Scorer →Frequently asked questions
What is an earnings surprise?
An earnings surprise is the difference between a company's reported EPS (earnings per share) and the analyst consensus estimate before the report. Surprise % = (Actual EPS − Estimated EPS) / |Estimated EPS| × 100. A positive surprise (beat) means the company earned more than expected; a negative surprise (miss) means it earned less. Large surprises — above 10% in either direction — tend to be harder for management to manufacture and represent genuine outperformance or underperformance.
How is EPS surprise percentage calculated?
EPS surprise % = (Actual EPS − Estimated EPS) / |Estimated EPS| × 100. The absolute value of the estimate is used in the denominator so that the formula works correctly for negative expected EPS. For example, if a company was expected to report $0.50 EPS and reported $0.65, the surprise is ($0.65 − $0.50) / $0.50 × 100 = +30%. If a company was expected to report $0.08 and reported $0.03, the surprise is ($0.03 − $0.08) / $0.08 × 100 = −62.5%.
Why does 1-day stock return matter after an earnings beat?
The 1-day stock return on earnings day shows how much of the surprise was already priced in. A large EPS beat with a flat or negative stock price reaction suggests the market had already anticipated good results — or that guidance disappointed. A modest beat with a strong stock reaction means the market upgraded its forward estimates, often more important than the raw surprise number. Studying beat magnitude alongside 1-day return helps separate 'expected beats' from genuine fundamental surprises.
What counts as a large earnings surprise?
As a general rule, surprises under 3% are routine — companies routinely guide analysts lower to manufacture small beats. Surprises of 5–10% are notable and often move the stock. Surprises above 10% are large and typically indicate a genuine forecast miss or a business acceleration that analysts hadn't modelled. Surprises above 20% are exceptional and often signal a structural change in the business — rapid revenue growth, a large contract win, or a cost-structure improvement the market hadn't anticipated.
How often is this earnings surprises leaderboard updated?
The leaderboard is updated weekly, every Sunday at 1am UTC, using data from 200 liquid large-cap tickers. Surprise % is calculated from the most recent quarterly earnings report for each ticker using Yahoo Finance data. The 'Updated' timestamp on the leaderboard shows when the data was last refreshed.