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Tariff Impact Calculator
See how import tariffs hit any stock's EPS and gross margin. Slide the three levers — import share, tariff rate, and passthrough to customers — to model best-case and worst-case scenarios. Pre-loaded with AAPL, NKE, DE, F, GM and more.
Inputs
Quick scenarios
Results
Demo: this company EPS drops $0.00 (−0.0%) under a 25% tariff with 50% passthrough to customers.
Profit & Loss impact
| Line item | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $100.00B | $102.25B |
| COGS | $60.00B | $62.25B |
| Gross Profit | $40.00B | $40.00B |
| Gross Margin | 40.0% | 39.1% |
| Δ Operating Income | — | −$0 |
| EPS | $4.00 | $4.00 |
Pair with: P/E Calculator to revalue at the new EPS · DCF Calculator to model long-term impact · How to Read a Balance Sheet
How to use this tariff calculator
Pick a pre-loaded scenario — or type any ticker
The chips across the top are shortcuts to ten of the most tariff-exposed large-cap US stocks with sensible default import-share assumptions. For anything else, type the ticker (e.g. CAT, WHR, HAS) and we pull revenue, COGS, shares, and EPS from the latest 10-K.
Set the % of COGS imported
This is the share of cost of goods sold that comes from tariff-exposed countries. Apple is ~60% China-assembled. Best Buy is ~55% Asian-sourced electronics. Deere is ~25% (mostly imported steel and components). Start with the scenario default and adjust based on company-specific supply chain disclosures.
Set the tariff rate
The headline tariff rate applied to the imported share. Recent US policy has oscillated between 10% and 25%+ on various categories. Slide up to 50% to stress-test the worst case. Sector-specific tariffs (steel, EVs, semiconductors) can be even higher — model those by adjusting import share proportionally.
Slide passthrough to model pricing power
This is the key insight lever. Companies with strong brand power (Apple, Deere, Nike) can push 60–80% of tariff costs onto customers. Thin-margin retailers (Best Buy, Target) can pass through maybe 30–40% before demand breaks. 0% passthrough = worst case; 100% = margins fully protected.
Tariffs, pricing power, and EPS
Passthrough is the whole game
If a company can pass 100% of a tariff through to customers, gross margin dollars stay flat and EPS is unchanged — revenue rises by the same dollar amount COGS rises. If passthrough is 0%, the entire tariff cost hits operating income, and EPS falls proportionally to imported COGS × tariff rate × (1 − tax rate).
The middle case is where investors get the math wrong. At 50% passthrough, half the tariff is absorbed, half is passed on — but the absorbed half compounds through the income statement: lower gross profit means lower tax, so the net-income hit is only 79% of the gross impact (at a 21% rate). The calculator shows this exactly.
Which companies have pricing power?
High passthrough: iconic brands (Apple, Nike), machinery with irreplaceable specs (Deere, Caterpillar), pharma with patent moats, any category with inelastic demand. These companies historically maintain gross margin through commodity cost cycles because customers don't switch when price goes up 5–10%.
Low passthrough: commoditized retail (Target, Best Buy), discount apparel, anything facing a private-label alternative. These companies face immediate demand destruction if they try to pass cost through — customers substitute to a cheaper product or competitor. In these cases tariffs hit margins dollar-for-dollar.
The second-order effect: demand destruction
Even when a company passes tariffs through, the higher end-price reduces unit demand. A 10% price increase on a premium consumer electronics product may drop unit sales 5–15%, which means revenue rises less than the tariff impact and margin dollars still compress. This calculator models the first-order margin effect; use the DCF calculator to model the demand response over 5–10 years.
Why COGS data matters more than revenue
Tariffs hit COGS, not revenue — so a company's gross-margin structure dictates sensitivity. A 20% gross margin business (thin) has 80% of revenue in COGS, so a 25% tariff on 40% of COGS means 8% of revenue added as cost. A 60% gross margin business (fat) has 40% of revenue in COGS — the same tariff hits only 4% of revenue. That's why asset-light, high-margin businesses are structurally less tariff-sensitive.
The P/E reprice trap
Here's the gotcha most retail investors miss: tariffs don't just lower EPS — they usually raise the appropriate P/E multiple lower (not higher). A company facing a structural earnings headwind should trade at a lower multiple of those depressed earnings, compounding the damage. Use the P/E Calculator to revalue the stock at the new EPS and a sector-median multiple to see the full cascade.
What this tool doesn't model
The tool captures the first-order income statement hit. It does not model: supplier-of-supplier effects (tariffs compound through supply chains), retaliation tariffs on US exports (a big deal for Deere, Boeing, Caterpillar), FX offset (a weaker dollar can partially offset import costs), or tariff-avoidance strategies (supply chain relocation, exclusions, in-country manufacturing). For a full picture, combine this output with a DCF sensitivity analysis and qualitative judgment on management's mitigation plan.
Frequently asked questions
How do tariffs affect stock prices?
Tariffs are taxes on imported goods, paid by the importing company. The effect on a stock depends on three things: how much of the company's cost of goods sold (COGS) is imported from tariff-exposed countries, the tariff rate, and how much of the extra cost can be passed through to customers as a price increase. Companies with strong brand power (Apple, Deere) typically pass more through; thin-margin retailers (Best Buy, Target) absorb more. The calculator turns all three levers into a concrete dollar and percent hit to EPS.
Which stocks are most exposed to China tariffs?
Companies with the highest China sourcing in their cost of goods sold are most exposed: consumer electronics retailers (Best Buy, Target), footwear and apparel brands (Nike), and hardware/appliances (Home Depot, Lowe's). Big-tech hardware names like Apple are heavily China-dependent for final assembly despite diversification efforts into India and Vietnam. Automakers (Ford, GM) have Mexico and China exposure through parts even when final assembly is in the US.
What is tariff passthrough?
Tariff passthrough is the share of the tariff cost that a company transfers to customers via higher prices. 100% passthrough means the company's gross margin is protected — the customer pays the tariff. 0% passthrough means the company absorbs the entire cost, compressing margins and EPS. Real-world passthrough is usually somewhere in between (30–70%) and depends on brand power, competitive intensity, and demand elasticity. The passthrough slider is the single most important input in this calculator.
How do I calculate tariff impact on EPS?
The formula: new COGS = old COGS × (1 + import% × tariff rate × (1 − passthrough)). Extra COGS absorbed by the company reduces operating income dollar-for-dollar. Then apply the corporate tax rate (21% US default) to get the net income hit, and divide by diluted shares outstanding to get the EPS delta. This calculator does all of it live — enter a ticker, slide the three inputs, and watch EPS and gross margin update.
Are tariffs already priced into stocks?
Sometimes — but often only partially. The market tends to under-price two things: the compounding effect of tariffs on multi-tier supply chains (your supplier's supplier also raises prices), and the second-order demand hit when retail prices rise. When headline tariff rates change suddenly, stocks reprice quickly on the announcement; the residual work is modeling what the steady-state impact looks like, which is exactly what this tool is designed for.