Alcoa Revenue Up 31%, COO Sells Post Back-to-Back Misses
Alcoa Corporation posted trailing twelve-month revenue of $13.60 billion, up 31.4% year-over-year, yet missed EPS consensus for the second consecutive quarter. Chief Operations Officer Matthew T. Reed
Alcoa Revenue Up 31%, COO Sells Post Back-to-Back Misses
NEW YORK, August 7 —
Alcoa Corporation (AA) posted its second straight earnings miss in July even as trailing-twelve-month revenue surged 31.4% to $13.60 billion. Six days after releasing Q2 results, the company's Chief Operations Officer sold $215,372 in stock. That sale lands against a Wall Street consensus target of $62.97 and a forward P/E of just 8.4x.
- COO Matthew T. Reed sold 4,600 shares at $46.82 on July 22, the sole open-market insider sale in 90 days.
- TTM free cash flow of $961 million; forward P/E of 8.4x against a $62.97 analyst consensus target.
- Back-to-back EPS misses: 9.7% short two quarters ago, 3.2% short last quarter, as revenue surged.
What the Revenue Number Hides
Alcoa Corporation mines bauxite in Australia and Brazil, refines it into alumina, and smelts it into ingot sold to transportation, packaging, and building markets. Trailing revenue of $13.60 billion, up 31.4% year-over-year, points to a real aluminum market recovery. But that recovery has not translated cleanly into earnings. Four quarters ago, Alcoa was beating estimates by over 55% on negative EPS; in each of the last two quarters it has missed on positive ones, first by 9.7% and then by 3.2%. A commodity cycle lifting the top line while operational execution lags is the gap the cheap multiple reflects.
The Selling Pattern
Six days after Alcoa's Q2 2026 results, EVP and Chief Operations Officer Matthew T. Reed sold 4,600 shares at $46.82 per share for proceeds of $215,372, per Form 4 filings. Reed oversees the production operations whose repeated shortfalls have complicated the earnings story. No other insider filed an open-market purchase over the trailing 90 days; all other Form 4 activity in that period consisted of stock awards. A buy/sell ratio of zero versus $215,372 does not settle the question of whether cheap means value or structural drag, but it is a data point from the executive closest to execution quality.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | $13.2B | 8.4x | +48.6% |
| DD | $19.7B | 18.3x | +59.7% |
| FCX | $97.3B | 17.0x | +52.0% |
| CAT | $388.8B | 26.5x | +99.3% |
| AXP | $230.3B | 17.0x | +15.9% |
| HPQ | $27.0B | 9.8x | +3.9% |
What Q3 Must Deliver
Wall Street's consensus target of $62.97 sits 26% above the current $49.98 price, and $961 million in trailing free cash flow against a $13.19 billion market cap supports the cheap multiple. FMR LLC and Abigail Johnson's 6.4% Schedule 13G stake, disclosed just before this analysis, puts real institutional capital at current prices. The variable that resolves the argument is Q3 EPS relative to consensus; a third consecutive miss would test whether the gap between analyst targets and market price reflects opportunity or a persistent inability to convert aluminum tailwinds into earnings. The DCF calculator quantifies how sensitive that gap is to margin assumptions. Run the free Alcoa Corporation deep-dive →
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Alcoa miss earnings two quarters in a row?
Alcoa's trailing revenue reflects a genuine aluminum market recovery, but that recovery has not translated cleanly into earnings. The company missed EPS estimates by 9.7% two quarters ago and by 3.2% last quarter, a pattern the article describes as operational execution lagging the commodity tailwind.
Why did Alcoa's COO sell stock after Q2 results?
EVP and Chief Operations Officer Matthew T. Reed sold 4,600 shares at $46.82 per share for proceeds of $215,372, six days after Alcoa's Q2 2026 results, per Form 4 filings. It was the sole open-market insider sale in the trailing 90 days; all other Form 4 activity in that period consisted of stock awards.
Is Alcoa stock undervalued at 8.4x forward P/E?
Wall Street's consensus target of $62.97 sits 26% above the current price of $49.98, and $961 million in trailing free cash flow against a $13.19 billion market cap supports the cheap multiple. Whether that gap reflects opportunity or a persistent inability to convert aluminum tailwinds into earnings is the open question heading into Q3.
What is Alcoa's free cash flow?
Alcoa generated $961 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow at the time of this analysis, against a market capitalization of $13.19 billion.
Who holds the largest Alcoa institutional stake?
FMR LLC and Abigail Johnson disclosed a 6.4% Schedule 13G stake just before this analysis was published, reflecting meaningful institutional capital at current prices.
Alcoa Corporation posted its second straight earnings miss in July even as trailing-twelve-month revenue surged 31% to $13.6 billion, then six days after the Q2 results the company's Chief Operations Officer sold $215,000 in stock — a move that sits uneasily with a Wall Street consensus target of $62.97 against the current price of $49.98.