Almonty Surges 8.9% as Tungsten Miner Posts First Profit
Almonty Industries shares have surged 8.9% Friday — the second double-digit move in two days — as investors respond to a swing to positive trailing earnings and a near-quintupling of revenue; the unan
Almonty Surges 8.9% as Tungsten Miner Posts First Profit
NEW YORK, August 15 —
Friday's 8.9% surge follows an 8.2% session on August 13, two moves in two days on results that demand closer arithmetic.
- Revenue surged 497.7% to approximately $90M on a trailing basis, roughly quintupling year-over-year.
- Free cash flow stands at -$50M against $27M in operating cash flow, a $77M gap from mine development capex.
- Consensus price target of $25.26 implies 67% upside from $15.09; the stock trades at 7.4x forward earnings.
Revenue Quintupled; the Margin Held
Almonty's tungsten concentrate operations span five countries: Canada, South Korea, Portugal, Spain, and the United States. The near-quintupling of trailing revenue to approximately $90 million reflects operational scale, and a 49.8% gross margin shows the concentrate business retains nearly half its revenue before operating costs arrive. That combination pulled trailing EPS to $0.22, ending a stretch that included a -2,974% quarterly miss four quarters ago. The trailing picture is unambiguously better. The issue is the most recent print.
The Cash Flow Math Doesn't Match the Stock Move
Operating cash flow of $27 million masks a $77 million gap to free cash flow, reflecting mine development capex across the portfolio. A Sahm analysis flagging a new shelf registration and ESOP plan adds a dilution dimension the balance sheet does not obviously require: $1.23 billion in cash against $0.81 billion in debt leaves a net cash position of approximately $420 million against $90 million in trailing revenue. The DCF calculator can frame the valuation inputs.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALM | $4.3B | 13.6x | +222.4% |
| UAMY | $825M | n/a | +22.7% |
| NB | $744M | n/a | +16.9% |
| PPTA | $3.2B | n/a | +43.7% |
| CRML | $978M | n/a | +8.5% |
Next Quarter's EPS Is the Test
At $15.09 against a consensus target of $25.26, the 67% implied upside at a 7.4x forward P/E argues analysts have not fully credited the earnings inflection. Insider ownership of 22.7% alongside 45.6% institutional participation means both camps are watching the next quarterly print. A shelf filing that materializes resets the dilution calculus first. The neutral call hinges on whether the next quarter beats consensus; the free cash flow gap is the figure that confirms or breaks the profitability narrative. Run the free Almonty Industries Inc. deep-dive for the full fundamental picture.
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Almonty Industries shares have surged 8.9% Friday — the second double-digit move in two days — as investors respond to a swing to positive trailing earnings and a near-quintupling of revenue; the unanswered question is whether a first profit on paper holds up when free cash flow remains -$50 million and a potential shelf offering looms.