AST SpaceMobile Analyst Sees 67% Upside as SpaceX Steals Spectrum
AST SpaceMobile shares slid after-hours after SpaceX secured the Ligado spectrum bid, introducing a credible competitive overhang on satellite-to-cell coverage, while a separate analyst argued shares
AST SpaceMobile Analyst Sees 67% Upside as SpaceX Steals Spectrum
NEW YORK, October 9 —
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) slid after-hours after SpaceX secured the Ligado spectrum bid, as a fresh analyst note pegged fair value 67% higher.
- Shares at $49.79, with 21.8% of float sold short; stock declined after-hours on SpaceX's Ligado win
- Analyst estimates 67% undervaluation citing TELUS integration progress; TTM revenue of $115mn grew 2,627% YoY, though FCF stands at -$1.8bn
- Next inflection: TELUS commercial launch milestones and any additional Ligado-related spectrum auction outcomes
The 67% Bull Case Built on TELUS as Proof-of-Concept
The analyst's upside argument centers on TELUS integration progress, framing the Canadian carrier partnership as the template for a global rollout. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) carries a -38.7x forward P/E and -$1.8bn in FCF, so the investment case has never been about current earnings; it is option value on satellite-to-cell ubiquity at scale. Check the ASTS fundamentals page for a full breakdown of the balance sheet.
With $115mn in TTM revenue growing 2,627% YoY, the underlying business is scaling. Scaling from a small base into a contested spectrum environment, however, is a materially different setup than scaling unopposed.
SpaceX Secures Ligado: Two Players, Same Carriers, One Pie
SpaceX's win on the Ligado spectrum bid inserts a well-capitalized direct rival into the satellite-to-cell race. ASTS and SpaceX are now competing for the same outcome: connecting standard handsets via low-earth-orbit satellites without hardware modification. Two credible players chasing the same carriers for the same contracts changes the negotiating math for both sides.
The competitive threat is not near-term revenue share, since ASTS's $115mn revenue base is too early for that fight. The real target is the long-term multiple: if carriers can pit ASTS against SpaceX, pricing power compresses, and the premium baked into ASTS's valuation starts to look optimistic.
'Ligado Is Next': A Serial Spectrum Aggregation Pattern, Not a One-Off
The analyst who flagged the SpaceX-Ligado deal is already warning that "Ligado is next" in a broader consolidation pattern. That framing matters: sequential acquisitions by a well-funded rival could close off ASTS's spectrum options before its full constellation is deployed, making the competitive threat cumulative rather than isolated. The after-hours drop is marked in the chart above, and the forward signal on spectrum access is deteriorating.
Short Interest at 21.8% Has Been Pricing In This Scenario All Along
With 21.8% of float sold short, the market has been divided on this thesis for months. Shorts are not betting on near-term earnings failure; they are betting the option never pays off. If TELUS commercial launch milestones slip or SpaceX accumulates further spectrum, the multiple on a company running -$1.8bn in FCF corrects sharply.
The bull thesis requires TELUS to convert into a scalable revenue template and ASTS to hold spectrum-access advantages over a rival with deeper pockets. SpaceX just made the second condition harder. The specific metric that proves the 67% upside thesis wrong next quarter: a delay in TELUS commercial launch, or confirmation that SpaceX's Ligado holdings cover the same bands ASTS is counting on.
To stress-test the carrier revenue assumptions behind the 67% upside call, use the DCF calculator or generate a full ASTS analysis at Basis Report's stock intelligence page.
Basis Report is independent research for informational purposes. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
An analyst argues AST SpaceMobile is 67% undervalued based on TELUS integration progress, while shares fell after-hours as SpaceX secured Ligado spectrum over ASTS.