BBVA Argentina: Candriam Bets $26M Against Three Misses
Candriam S.C.A. opened a $26.2 million position in BBVA Argentina roughly 12 days before August 27 earnings, despite three consecutive EPS misses that widened to a -74.3% shortfall on the most recent
BBVA Argentina Earnings Due as Candriam Opens $26M Position
NEW YORK, August 26 —
Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR) has missed analyst earnings estimates three quarters running, with the shortfall widening each time, yet Candriam S.C.A. chose to open a $26.2 million position just days before Wednesday's August 27 results: a contrarian bet that the pattern breaks at exactly this moment.
- Most recent EPS: actual vs. $1.05 estimate, a -74.3% miss, the worst in three straight quarters.
- Candriam S.C.A. disclosed a new $26.2 million BBAR position approximately 12 days before the August 27 earnings date.
- Analyst consensus target of $25 against a $14.75 stock price implies 69% upside.
The Shortfall Is Accelerating
Banco BBVA Argentina, a Buenos Aires retail and commercial bank founded in 1886, offers consumers checking accounts, mortgages, and credit cards while serving corporate clients through project finance and capital markets advisory. The bank has printed three consecutive EPS misses, each larger than the last: -43.2% two quarters ago, -40.0% the next, and -74.3% most recently, with actual against $1.05 expected. At trailing EPS of $0.95 and 0.8% revenue growth over twelve months, those estimates look hard to justify. Whether the misses reflect Argentine credit deterioration or analysts slow to recalibrate is the question Wednesday begins to answer.
A $26M Bet Against Three Widening Misses
Asset manager Candriam S.C.A. disclosed its new position roughly 12 days before the August 27 earnings date: either a contrarian entry ahead of a catalyst, or a position built without a specific edge on the earnings setup. At $14.75 and a $3.01 billion market cap, BBAR trades at 13.4x forward P/E against a $25 consensus target, a spread that a DCF calculator can pressure-test against different assumptions about normalized earnings. With institutional ownership at just 11.1% of shares outstanding, the entry is large relative to the existing base, implying conviction either in Argentine macro stabilization or that three quarters of widening misses have overshot fair value downward.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBAR | $3.0B | 13.4x | +20.1% |
| SUPV | $817M | 7.0x | +10.7% |
| BMA | $5.0B | 6.9x | +35.4% |
| GGAL | $7.4B | 6.6x | +11.0% |
| CEPU | $2.0B | 8.1x | +31.2% |
| LOMA | $1.1B | 12.5x | +3.8% |
One Print Can Settle This, or Deepen It
The number to watch Wednesday is an EPS print above , closer to the $0.95 trailing annual pace, which would validate Candriam's timing as a contrarian entry ahead of a genuine inflection. Short interest at 2.2% of the float signals the market has not aggressively positioned against a recovery, leaving risk skewed in both directions. Without a Q2 transcript or SEC filings to sharpen the setup, a neutral stance is the honest call; the 69% gap between price and target marks the stakes, but three widening misses mean that gap may close or may simply reflect where fair value now sits. Run the free Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. deep-dive →
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Frequently Asked Questions
When does BBVA Argentina report earnings?
BBVA Argentina is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday, August 27. Candriam S.C.A. disclosed its new position approximately 12 days before that date.
What is BBVA Argentina's recent earnings history?
The bank has missed analyst EPS estimates three consecutive quarters, with the shortfall widening each time: -43.2%, -40.0%, and -74.3%. The most recent result was $0.273 actual against a $1.05 estimate.
Why did Candriam buy BBVA Argentina stock before earnings?
The article presents two possibilities: a contrarian entry ahead of a catalyst, or a position opened without a differentiated read on the earnings setup. At 11.1% institutional ownership, the $26.2 million stake is large relative to the existing base, implying conviction in either Argentine macro stabilization or that three quarters of widening misses have pushed the stock below fair value.
What is the analyst price target for BBVA Argentina?
The consensus analyst target is $25 against a current stock price of $14.75, implying 69% upside. BBAR trades at 13.4x forward P/E with a $3.01 billion market cap.
What earnings number matters most for BBAR this week?
The key figure to watch is an EPS print above $0.273 and closer to the $0.95 trailing annual pace, which would validate Candriam's timing as a contrarian entry ahead of a genuine inflection. Short interest at 2.2% of the float signals the market has not aggressively positioned against a recovery, leaving risk skewed in both directions.
Banco BBVA Argentina is set to report Q2 2026 results on August 27 while asset manager Candriam S.C.A. has just opened a $26.2 million position in the stock — yet the bank has missed analyst EPS estimates in each of the last three quarters, with the most recent shortfall reaching -74.3%.