Coeur Mining Slumps on Oil Shock Despite $340M Net Cash
Coeur Mining fell 8% on oil shocks and rate fears, extending a 22.4% monthly decline. The balance sheet looks strong at $340 million net cash with $797 million free cash flow, but a 53.6% Q3 EPS miss
Silver Rout Batters Coeur Despite Net-Cash Balance Sheet
NEW YORK, October 24 —
The October 22 Hormuz oil shock drove Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) down 8%, extending a 22.4% monthly decline that leaves the stock at 7.3x forward earnings with $340 million net cash. One complicating fact: the most-recent quarter missed EPS estimates by 53.6%, widening the gap between what the balance sheet implies and what reported earnings say.
- CDE trades at $13.45 against an analyst consensus target of $23.22, implying 72.6% upside.
- Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $3.17 billion, up 125.9% year-over-year; operating cash flow of billion; free cash flow of $797 million.
- Net insider sales of $1.06 million over 90 days; zero insider purchases.
Rate Fears Hit Silver as Hard as Oil
The Hormuz attacks pushed Brent crude above $112 per barrel on October 22, its highest since May, and sent December Fed rate-hike odds to 86%. For silver producers that combination is doubly toxic: oil pressures mining costs while rate expectations strengthen the dollar and weigh on metal prices. The selloff was sector-wide: Americas Gold and Silver fell 11%, Wheaton Precious Metals and Pan American Silver each fell 6%. Coeur Mining operates six segments in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, selling gold and silver to third-party refiners, and has averaged a 41% decline during market shocks since 2007, more than double the S&P 500's 15.8%.
Cash Flow Says One Thing, Earnings Say Another
The most recent quarter's EPS of $0.12 missed the $0.26 estimate by 53.6%, yet trailing numbers show operating cash flow of billion and free cash flow of $797 million on $3.17 billion in revenue, up 125.9% year-over-year, at a 56.3% gross margin. That gap between accrual earnings and cash generation is the key interpretive question, and a DCF framework can help quantify it once the earnings picture clarifies. Per filings, executives and a director sold $1.06 million in shares over 90 days at prices between $20.77 and $21.06, with no open-market purchases; those sales came 57% above where the stock now trades.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDE | $13.8B | 7.3x | -23.9% |
| HL | $9.3B | 13.4x | +12.1% |
| PAAS | $16.6B | 9.4x | +15.6% |
| KGC | $26.5B | 8.3x | -1.9% |
| EXK | $2.2B | 7.2x | -4.5% |
| AG | $7.3B | 15.0x | +18.7% |
Q4 Earnings Will Settle the Discount Debate
Across 14 prior shocks, CDE's median recovery to pre-shock highs took 3.8 months, though three required more than a year. The balance-sheet case is clear: $340 million net cash, $797 million trailing free cash flow, and a 72.6% gap to the $23.22 analyst consensus target. GuruFocus puts intrinsic value at $12.46, near the current price, suggesting the discount is thinner than targets imply. If Q4 EPS closes toward the cash-flow run rate, the 7.3x forward multiple looks like genuine mis-pricing; if it widens, the balance sheet may not be enough. Run the free Coeur Mining, Inc. deep-dive for the latest numbers.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Coeur Mining stock fall 8%?
An oil shock drove Brent crude above $112 per barrel while Fed rate hike odds climbed to 86%, both pressuring silver prices and mining costs. The selloff extended across precious metals, with Americas Gold and Silver falling 11% and other peers declining 6%.
Did Coeur Mining beat earnings?
The Q3 EPS of $0.12 missed the $0.26 estimate by 53.6%. However, trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $1.466 billion and free cash flow of $797 million suggest strong underlying cash generation, creating a gap between reported earnings and the balance sheet.
What is Coeur Mining's analyst target?
The analyst consensus target is $23.22 per share, implying 72.6% upside from $13.45. The company has $340 million in net cash and $797 million in trailing free cash flow, supporting the bull case despite the recent earnings miss and macro headwinds.
When will Q4 earnings clarify the valuation?
Q4 earnings will be critical: across 14 prior shocks, Coeur recovered to pre-shock highs in a median of 3.8 months, though three took more than a year. If Q4 EPS moves toward the cash-flow run rate, the 7.3x forward multiple could represent mis-pricing; if the gap widens, the balance sheet may not be enough.
Did insiders buy or sell Coeur stock?
Executives and a director sold $1.06 million in shares over 90 days at prices between $20.77 and $21.06, with zero open-market purchases. Those sales occurred at prices 57% above the current $13.45 level.
Silver prices fell sharply on October 22 after new attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping pushed Brent crude above $112 a barrel and lifted December Fed rate-hike odds to 86%, sending Coeur Mining down 8% to $13.45. The drop is the latest challenge for a stock that trades at 7.3x forward earnings and holds more cash than debt, yet cannot find a sustained bid.