Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Surges, CEO Eyes $4 Billion Earnings by 2027

NEW YORK, October 23 —

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) surged on upbeat Q3 results, with its CEO projecting adjusted EBITDA above $4B in 2027, a multi-year commitment that puts the short sellers on notice.

$220mn FCF at Trough: The Machine Was Not Broken

The number wire coverage buries is the gap between reported earnings and cash generation. Trailing EPS of -$0.83 is the headline. Free cash flow of $220mn is the signal. On $20.1bn TTM revenue, a company losing money on paper while generating meaningful cash is carrying heavy depreciation, the fixed-asset weight of a capital-intensive steel business, not operational failure.

That reframes the 2027 EBITDA target entirely. Management is not projecting a rescue from distress. They are projecting a cycle expansion on top of a business that, by cash terms, is already working.

13.9% Short Interest Is a Theory, Not a Glitch

Almost one in seven shares is sold short. That is a thesis, not noise. The skeptic's case likely rests on timing: steel demand needs to hold through 2025 and 2026 for a 2027 payoff to materialize. A three-year EBITDA commitment in a commodity business is as much a hostage to pricing as it is to management execution.

The stock had been under pressure before this catalyst; the surge off the Q3 report is visible in the chart. With short interest near 14%, a sustained earnings recovery compresses that position fast and adds fuel to any price move the fundamentals already justify.

18.5% Revenue Growth Before the Real Money Kicks In

CLF is already growing at 18.5% YoY on a $20.1bn revenue base. That is not a company waiting for a cycle. It is a company already in one. The 2027 EBITDA target sits on top of a business that has rebuilt its top line. If Q3 confirms the trajectory, the 9.5x forward P/E looks like the kind of valuation cyclicals carry at mid-cycle, not peak.

Q3 Actuals Are the First Line of Defense for That EBITDA Story

Three-year guidance is only as credible as the quarter beneath it. The Q3 adjusted EBITDA figure, alongside any 2024 full-year revision, is where short sellers will probe for the first crack. If CLF delivers a Q3 number implying the slope toward that target is already established, the bear thesis compresses significantly. If margins disappoint while the CEO guides aggressively for 2027, the target floats without an anchor and the stock gives back the move.

The specific number that breaks the bull case: a Q3 EBITDA print that fails to show sequential improvement in operating margins. That is what to watch at the call.

Model what that target implies for CLF's valuation at today's price using the DCF calculator, then generate a full financial breakdown at Basis Report's CLF page.

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