Cleveland-Cliffs Narrows Losses and Revenue Grows, But Analysts Still Cut Price Targets

NEW YORK, April 28 —

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) jumped roughly 9% after posting a narrower Q1 loss than expected on growing revenue.

What Actually Happened

CLF's Q1 was still unprofitable — but considerably less so than a year ago. Revenue grew. That matters for a company that spent 2024 and 2025 absorbing the Stelco acquisition, trying to prove it could be more than a blast furnace operator stuck in a cyclical trough.

The more interesting signal: CLF announced a partnership with Palantir to deploy AI across its operations. For a steelmaker running dozens of facilities, the cost savings could be real. But this is the kind of deal that produces press releases long before it produces margin improvement. Any financial impact is a 2027 story at the earliest.

Trailing twelve-month revenue of $18.9bn puts CLF among the largest steelmakers in North America. The company is not small. The question is whether it can turn that scale into consistent earnings.

The Catch

Here is the number that should bother the bulls: analysts cut the consensus price target to $10.78. The stock already trades at $10.37. That is 4% of implied upside — after a 9% pop. The Street watched CLF beat estimates and responded by lowering its outlook anyway.

A 23.9x forward P/E on a steelmaker still losing money means the market is betting on a recovery that hasn't arrived. Steel is a commodity business. If pricing weakens in Q2, that multiple stretches further into uncomfortable territory. Tariff policy could strengthen CLF's domestic pricing power. It could also kill demand from downstream customers. Both outcomes are plausible. Neither is priced with much margin of safety.

Bottom Line

This was a good quarter relative to low expectations. The loss narrowed. Revenue grew. Management has a credible cost-cutting story. That is enough to justify the pop.

But a steel company trading at nearly 24x forward earnings — with a consensus target barely above its current price — is not a value play. It is a turnaround bet. If you believe steel pricing holds and CLF can grind to profitability by late 2026, the stock is interesting here. If you want proof first, the Street is telling you to wait. The number to watch: Q2 steel pricing. Everything else is noise until the commodity cooperates.

Want a deeper look at Cleveland-Cliffs' valuation and financial trends? Generate a free CLF report on Basis Report.

Basis Report does not hold positions in securities discussed. This is not investment advice.