USDC Issuer Circle Beats Estimates as EPS Compresses
Circle Internet Group shares trade at $102.29 and 64.3x forward earnings — pricing a stablecoin growth story — while sequential EPS has declined every quarter for a year and every insider from CEO to
USDC Issuer Circle Beats Estimates as EPS Compresses
NEW YORK, September 3 —
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) has beaten analyst EPS estimates four consecutive quarters, yet actual sequential earnings per share compressed 72%, falling from $0.64 to $0.18. The stock trades at 64.3x forward earnings, just below analyst consensus at $103.55, while every insider sold shares without a single open-market purchase in 90 days.
- Sequential EPS declined every quarter for four periods: $0.64, $0.43, $0.21, $0.18, a 72% compression per Q2 results.
- Net insider activity: $16.92 million in sales, zero purchases, over the past 90 days per Form 4 filings.
- Stock at $102.29, 64.3x forward P/E; analyst consensus target is $103.55, less than 1.5% upside.
The Beat Streak That Hides the Deterioration
Circle Internet Group builds the infrastructure layer for dollar stablecoins, specifically USDC and EURC, alongside custody and liquidity services for institutional users. Its trailing revenue reached $2.91 billion, growing 6.6%, but gross margin stands at just 22.0%, thin for a business marketing itself as financial infrastructure. The EPS pattern is the tell: four consecutive beats, per Circle's Q2 earnings report, but sequential earnings fell from $0.64 to $0.43 to $0.21 to $0.18 per share. The beat margin itself collapsed from 250.8% to 12.6%, meaning estimates have almost caught up to reality. One more quarter at this trajectory and the beat streak ends.
Insiders Cashed Out Across Every Price Point
The selling record over the past 90 days is unambiguous: $16.92 million in open-market sales and zero purchases, spanning every price from $58.50 to $90.00. CEO Jeremy Allaire sold multiple tranches on August 5 at $60.14 to $63.66. CFO Jeremy Fox-geen exercised options at $10.11 per share and sold all 45,000 the same day at $90.00, capturing $79.89 per share in spread. Circle also filed an S-3ASR shelf registration on August 5, the same day as Q2 earnings; not yet an active offering, but a registered option to issue equity alongside a management team with no open-market buys.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRCL | $28.0B | 64.7x | -24.6% |
| CRWV | $46.2B | n/a | -7.5% |
| BMNR | $15.8B | 27.9x | -45.3% |
| FIG | $14.1B | 74.4x | -52.8% |
| NBIS | $56.7B | n/a | +214.4% |
| OKLO | $7.4B | n/a | -43.2% |
A 64x Multiple With Nowhere to Go
At $102.29 and 64.3x forward earnings, Circle's stock has priced a growth story recent quarters haven't delivered; analyst consensus at $103.55 means the market is already there. A 14% surge on bank-stablecoin competition news points to momentum rather than re-rating; a successful rival threatens USDC directly, the franchise this multiple prices. Circle holds $1.73 billion in cash and generated $206 million in free cash flow, real cushion that still cannot justify multiple expansion at compressing earnings; stress-test the assumptions at the DCF calculator. The number that changes the thesis: Q3 sequential EPS above $0.20. Run the free Circle Internet Group deep-dive →
Basis Report is independent research for informational purposes. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Circle Internet Group shares trade at $102.29 and 64.3x forward earnings — pricing a stablecoin growth story — while sequential EPS has declined every quarter for a year and every insider from CEO to CFO has been selling, with zero purchases recorded in 90 days.