Eldorado Gold Cuts 2026 Guidance Despite Record Revenue
Eldorado Gold posted record Q3 revenue of $512 million and doubled net earnings to $118 million, but investors focused on negative free cash flow and a capital-intensive Skouries project. The company
Eldorado Gold Cuts 2026 Guidance Despite Record Revenue
NEW YORK, October 30 —
Reported profit and earned cash are not the same metric.
- Q3 revenue $512M (+18% YoY); adjusted EPS $0.49 missed the $0.54 consensus by 9.3%, a second straight miss.
- TTM free cash flow negative $849M; total debt $2.0B against $0.40B cash; FCF inflection projected early 2027.
Reported Income, Negative Cash
Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) mines gold and copper across Turkey, Canada, and Greece: Kisladag and Efemçukuru in Turkey, Lamaque in Quebec, and a Greek cluster anchored by Olympias and the still-ramping Skouries project. An average realized gold price of $4,326 per ounce in Q3 drove net earnings to $118 million, more than double the prior year's $56 million. Adjusted EPS of $0.49 missed the $0.54 consensus, the second consecutive quarterly shortfall. The disconnect matters: the company has consumed $849 million in free cash over the trailing year against $2 billion in total debt and $400 million in cash.
Skouries: First Ounces, Higher Bill
Skouries produced its first copper-gold concentrate in Q3, a goal management had been working toward. McIlvenna Bay, the polymetallic mine from the Foran Mining acquisition, absorbed $23 million in additional capital due to a slower-than-expected ramp-up, while Eldorado trimmed legacy production guidance at Kisladag and Olympias. Eldorado cut Skouries' 2026 gold contribution to 10,000-35,000 ounces. Cost increases and production cuts arriving in the same release as "fully funded" is the credibility test for new CEO Christian Milau.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| EGO | $8.4B | 6.6x | +26.9% |
| IAG | $9.6B | 7.6x | +43.6% |
| KGC | $25.6B | 8.1x | -9.4% |
| GFI | $31.3B | 7.2x | -9.4% |
| HMY | $9.9B | 4.8x | -5.5% |
| AEM | $89.1B | 15.0x | +8.2% |
The Inflection Point That Hasn't Arrived
Management projects free cash flow to inflect positive in early 2027, with both Skouries and McIlvenna Bay reaching nameplate capacity by mid-year. Eldorado maintained its quarterly dividend and extended its revolving credit facility to $600 million through March 2029, providing $672 million in reported liquidity, enough runway if the timeline holds. Two consecutive EPS misses and cost increases that arrived even as the first ore was produced argue for skepticism about whether it will. Whether late-Q4 commercial production at Skouries arrives on schedule is the single number that changes the thesis; track it with the free Eldorado Gold Corporation deep-dive → or stress-test the 2027 scenario with Basis Report's DCF calculator.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Eldorado Gold Q3 2026 earnings results?
Eldorado Gold posted record Q3 revenue of $512 million, up 18% year-over-year, and net earnings of $118 million, more than double the prior year. However, adjusted EPS of $0.49 missed the $0.54 consensus estimate, marking the second consecutive quarterly shortfall.
What is the Skouries project?
Skouries is Eldorado Gold's mining project in Greece that produced its first copper-gold concentrate in Q3 2026. The project's total capital requirement increased by $160 million to $1.425 billion, and 2026 gold production guidance from the project was cut to 10,000-35,000 ounces.
Why did Eldorado stock fall despite strong earnings?
Investors focused on free cash flow concerns rather than reported earnings. The company burned $849 million in trailing-twelve-month free cash flow despite record revenue, primarily due to the capital-intensive Skouries and McIlvenna Bay projects.
When will Eldorado Gold have positive cash flow?
Management projects free cash flow to inflect positive in early 2027, with both Skouries and McIlvenna Bay reaching nameplate capacity by mid-year. However, two consecutive EPS misses and cost increases have raised investor skepticism about whether management's timeline will hold.
What is Eldorado Gold's debt position?
Eldorado Gold carries $2.0 billion in total debt and $0.40 billion in cash. The company has $672 million in reported liquidity, including a $600 million revolving credit facility extended through March 2029.
Eldorado Gold posted record Q3 2026 revenue and doubled year-over-year net earnings — then watched its stock fall 6% as investors focused on a production guidance cut, a $1.425 billion Skouries bill still growing, and a third consecutive quarter of deeply negative free cash flow.