EQT's Beat Streak Breaks as Q3 Earnings Loom
EQT Corporation heads into its Q3 earnings report with a snapped three-quarter beat streak, a CEO who pocketed $9.6 million above the current share price in August, and Wall Street analysts projecting
EQT's Beat Streak Breaks as Q3 Earnings Loom
NEW YORK, September 30 —
EQT Corporation (EQT) enters Q3 earnings season with a broken beat streak, no insider purchases in 90 days, and a CEO who sold $9.6 million in stock at $55.03 in August; the stock now sits at $48.88. The question is whether Wall Street's consensus or management's own exit price is the more honest read on natural gas's near-term value.
- Three consecutive EPS beats (43.9%, 18.3%, 11.5%) ended with a 2.5% miss last quarter ($0.39 vs. $0.40).
- Trailing free cash flow of $2.46 billion; $5.55 billion in net debt; shares trade at 13x forward earnings.
- Consensus analyst target of $68.18, roughly 39% above $48.88, against CEO Toby Rice's August exit at $55.03.
The Beat That Wasn't
The Appalachian Basin producer sells natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil to utilities and industrial customers. The 80.7% gross margin reflects how capital-light that production base is, but trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 3.9% to $9.29 billion, a decline that predates the Q2 miss and shows the gas price environment that powered three straight beats was eroding faster than hedge books could offset. EQT reported its most recently completed earnings results in an 8-K filed with the SEC; the $0.39 per share it posted came in against a $0.40 estimate, ending the streak.
What the CEO Priced In
CEO Toby Z. Rice sold 175,328 shares at $55.03 per share on August 14, 2026, per Form 4 filings, collecting $9.65 million in open-market proceeds. The stock now trades $6.15 below that exit. No other insider has bought on the open market in the past 90 days; the period's net activity is zero purchases against that single sale. The $68.18 consensus target and Jefferies' $73 Buy rating may reflect sound two-year gas fundamentals, but Rice's exit price is what the company's highest-ranking insider thought the shares were worth in August, and the market has since moved lower, not higher.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| EQT | $30.6B | 13.0x | -13.0% |
| RRC | $8.6B | 9.4x | -2.0% |
| AR | $10.3B | 7.7x | -4.0% |
| LNG | $55.2B | 12.7x | +15.2% |
| EOG | $74.4B | 9.4x | +25.5% |
| FANG | $51.7B | 9.8x | +28.5% |
The $68 Question
The bull case rests on $2.46 billion in trailing free cash flow and a 13x forward P/E, numbers that look reasonable against a DCF framework if gas economics cooperate. A Q3 EPS beat or any progress on the $5.55 billion net debt position would give the $68 consensus something to build on. The specific number that would break the thesis is a second consecutive miss: it would confirm that Rice's August exit, not the analyst target, is the better anchor for where Appalachian gas earnings are headed this cycle. See the full DCF model and price target →
Current fundamentals, valuation and filing history for EQT Corporation (EQT) are tracked on its Basis Report page.
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EQT Corporation heads into its Q3 earnings report with a snapped three-quarter beat streak, a CEO who pocketed $9.6 million above the current share price in August, and Wall Street analysts projecting nearly 40% upside that the market has so far declined to price in.