Gerdau Posts Best EBITDA Since 2023, CEO Buys $781K
Gerdau posted its strongest adjusted EBITDA since Q3 2023 at BRL 3.4B in Q2 2026, with adjusted net income rising 45% sequentially, as North American demand from renewable energy, data centers, and in
Gerdau Posts Best EBITDA Since 2023 as CEO Bets $781K
NEW YORK, August 10 —
Gerdau S.A. (GGB) posted its strongest quarterly EBITDA since Q3 2023, with adjusted net income up 45% sequentially to BRL 1.5 billion. Those numbers would normally signal a clear turn. The catch: the steel producer has missed EPS consensus estimates in all four of its most recently reported quarters, by margins as wide as 32.9%.
- Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA: BRL 3.4B, strongest since Q3 2023; adjusted net income BRL 1.5B, up 45% sequentially.
- Four consecutive EPS misses: negative surprises of -6.9%, -24.4%, -32.9%, and -7.5% in the four most recently reported quarters.
- CEO Werneck da Cunha bought 165,224 sh at $4.73 on June 12; GGB trades at 1.6x forward P/E on 2026 consensus EPS.
North American Demand Is Doing the Lifting
Gerdau S.A. makes rebars, wire rods, structural profiles, and special steel for agricultural, automotive, construction, and industrial customers across three segments: Brazil, North America, and South America. In Q2 2026, North America did the work: segment EBITDA rose 15% from Q1, shipments climbed 7% year-over-year, and demand came from renewable energy, data centers, semiconductor fab projects, and infrastructure builds. Brazil is the drag: heavy steel import pressure has forced capacity adjustments including at the Recife mill, capping near-term pricing and limiting consolidated margin expansion. The Q2 recovery is real; so is the geographic split driving it.
Four Misses Make This a Show-Me Story
The complication is four consecutive EPS misses, with negative surprises of -6.9%, -24.4%, -32.9%, and -7.5%, meaning aggregate EBITDA improvement has not translated into clearing the Street's bar. At 1.6x forward P/E against a 2026 consensus EPS of $0.53, the valuation looks undemanding on paper, worth stress-testing with a DCF calculator given Brazil's import headwinds; the stock's substantial year-to-date advance means most of the recovery was already priced before Q2 reported. A planned Midlothian, Texas maintenance outage will add a BRL 100-150 million accounting drag. Whether Q2 actual EPS ends or extends the streak is the number that resolves this setup.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| GGB | $9.7B | 8.4x | +66.9% |
| SID | $1.2B | 13.4x | -32.1% |
| BBD | $36.4B | 5.9x | +16.2% |
| ITUB | $86.8B | 7.9x | +19.2% |
| CIG | $5.9B | 13.7x | +8.8% |
| ABEV | $45.6B | 13.6x | +33.9% |
The Case for Patience, Narrowly Defined
The clearest signal on management conviction came June 12: CEO Gustavo Werneck da Cunha bought 165,224 shares at $4.73 per share ($781,510 total) in the open market. Five other insiders sold a combined $281,000 across the prior six weeks, making him the sole net buyer. The Miguel Burnier mining expansion and recycling investments are projected to add BRL 1.4-1.5 billion in annual EBITDA at full operation, a pipeline the current multiple does not yet price. Q2's EBITDA recovery is genuine, but the stock has already moved sharply in its anticipation, the neutral stance holds until earnings confirm the turn. Run the free Gerdau S.A. deep-dive → to track whether Q2 earnings confirmed the turn.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What were Gerdau's Q2 2026 earnings results?
Gerdau reported Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of BRL 3.4B, its strongest since Q3 2023. Adjusted net income came in at BRL 1.5B, up 45% sequentially. Despite the EBITDA improvement, the company has missed EPS consensus estimates in each of its four most recently reported quarters, with negative surprises of -6.9%, -24.4%, -32.9%, and -7.5%.
Why did Gerdau's CEO buy shares in June 2026?
CEO Gustavo Werneck da Cunha purchased 165,224 shares at $4.73 per share on June 12, totaling $781,510, in open-market transactions. He was the sole net buyer among insiders, as five other insiders sold a combined $281,000 across the prior six weeks. The article identifies this as the most direct read on management conviction available.
How many EPS misses has Gerdau had in a row?
Gerdau has missed EPS consensus estimates in its four most recently reported quarters. The negative surprises were -6.9%, -24.4%, -32.9%, and -7.5%, meaning aggregate EBITDA improvement has not translated into clearing the Street's bar.
What is driving Gerdau North America demand?
Gerdau's North American segment saw EBITDA rise 15% from Q1 and shipments climb 7% year-over-year in Q2 2026. Demand came from renewable energy, data centers, semiconductor fab projects, and infrastructure builds. This strength offset weakness in Brazil, where heavy steel import pressure forced capacity adjustments including at the Recife mill.
What is Gerdau's forward P/E valuation?
Gerdau trades at 1.6x forward P/E on 2026 consensus EPS of $0.53. The Miguel Burnier mining expansion and recycling investments are projected to add BRL 1.4-1.5 billion in annual EBITDA at full operation, a pipeline the article notes the current multiple does not yet price.
Gerdau S.A. reported its strongest quarterly consolidated EBITDA since Q3 2023 in Q2 2026, with adjusted net income up 45% sequentially — yet the steel producer arrives at this milestone having missed EPS estimates in each of its four prior reported quarters, and its Brazil segment continues to cut capacity under import pressure.
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