HP Cuts FY26 Outlook Despite Four-Quarter Beat Streak
HP Inc. has beaten earnings estimates in four consecutive quarters — the two most recent each by more than 19% — yet news reports indicate the company simultaneously lowered its full-year FY26 guidanc
HP Cuts FY26 Outlook Despite Four-Quarter Beat Streak
NEW YORK, September 26 —
HP Inc. (HPQ) beat quarterly estimates for the fourth consecutive time this week, then cut its full-year forecast. The stock fell two sessions after hitting a 52-week high, earned a fresh Hold downgrade, and still trades above the consensus analyst price target.
- Most recent EPS: $0.83 vs. consensus, a 20.2% beat; prior quarter $0.86 vs. , a 19.6% beat.
- Shares at $31.30, above the $29.66 consensus analyst target; fwd P/E 10x; Wall Street Zen downgraded to Hold Sept 26.
- CCO David McQuarrie sold ~52,620 shares at $27.88, $29.98 in July, August; short interest 9.4% of float.
Beating the Quarter, Cutting the Year
HP Inc. makes PCs, workstations, printers, and 3D printing equipment through its Personal Systems and Printing segments, serving corporate, public-sector, and SMB customers worldwide with roughly 55,000 employees. The four-quarter beat streak tells one story: estimates that started easy (a 0.8% beat, then 5.2%) and then cleared wide at nearly 20% in each of the last two quarters. But the quarterly earnings filing accompanied a full-year guidance cut, the market's tell. Beating the quarter while cutting the year signals the company already knows the back half of its fiscal year will fall short.
Insiders Already Voted, With a Caveat
The more pointed signal is the CCO's, not the CFO's. Chief Commercial Officer David McQuarrie executed four open-market sales between July 28 and Aug 7, disposing of approximately 52,620 shares at $27.88 to $29.98 and collecting roughly $1.51M; open-market sales are elected, not automatic. CFO Karen Parkhill's Aug 5 disposal of 69,173 shares at $28.52, the largest single transaction of the period, was via tax-withholding on an option exercise, a routine mechanism. Both sold below the current $31.30, limiting the bearish read, but insider ownership sits at just 0.3% of shares and 9.4% of the float is short.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| HPQ | $28.2B | 10.0x | +16.6% |
| IBM | $212.5B | 17.2x | -18.8% |
| DELL | $357.9B | 19.3x | +300.3% |
| HPE | $83.6B | 13.7x | +163.1% |
| CSCO | $420.7B | 19.0x | +58.0% |
| ORCL | $414.6B | 12.5x | -50.7% |
The Multiple Has Run Ahead of the Guidance
At 10x forward earnings and $3.39B in trailing free cash flow, the multiple isn't demanding: test HP against peers in the P/E calculator. The balance sheet carries $4.17B in cash against $10.34B in debt, leveraged but serviceable. FCF provides a floor, but the stock trades above the $29.66 consensus target, guidance just moved lower, and Wall Street Zen's Sept 26 downgrade reflects a market that has priced the beat streak and sees limited upside. The thesis breaks if next quarter brings a second guidance cut; it holds if the FY26 floor proves durable. Run the free HP Inc. deep-dive before that verdict arrives.
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HP Inc. has beaten earnings estimates in four consecutive quarters — the two most recent each by more than 19% — yet news reports indicate the company simultaneously lowered its full-year FY26 guidance, and the stock received a downgrade to Hold on Friday while trading above the $29.66 consensus analyst price target.
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