Joby Lifts 2026 Outlook; Certification Slips to 2027
Joby Aviation raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $135-140 million after strong Q3 helicopter charter results from its Blade unit, which carried over 44,000 passengers. However, FAA pilot certificatio
Joby Lifts 2026 Outlook; FAA Pilot Flights Slip to 2027
NEW YORK, November 7 —
Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $135-140 million on the same November 4 earnings release where it disclosed FAA pilots won't fly its eVTOL aircraft for certification credit until at least 2027's first half. The beat belongs to Blade, the company's helicopter charter arm. A $6 billion market cap waits on that clock.
- Q3 revenue $55.1M beat consensus; Blade flew a record 44,000-plus passengers in the quarter.
- Full-year 2026 outlook raised to $135-140M; trailing twelve-month revenue growth: 144%.
- Cash $2.20B; free cash flow -$479M TTM; JOBY down 56% year-to-date at $5.78.
Blade Carries the Quarter
Joby Aviation develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for urban air mobility, the promise underpinning its current valuation, but those aircraft have yet to carry a paying fare. The revenue driving the guidance raise comes from Blade, Joby's helicopter and fixed-wing charter operation. Record passenger volume in Q3 2026 is genuine commercial traction; the Q3 EPS beat of -$0.22 against a - consensus continues an alternating pattern: over the prior four quarters, the company swung between misses and beats, with no sustained earnings momentum despite the current upside.
The Certification Calendar Owns the Thesis
The market cap math is unforgiving. At $6.03 billion, Joby's equity is priced for an air taxi network, not a helicopter charter service, however strong Blade's passenger volume. The obstacle: FAA pilots must fly Joby's eVTOL aircraft for credit before commercial service can launch, and that step won't arrive until at least H1 2027. Meanwhile, the share count has risen approximately 29% since 2024 through ongoing ATM equity sales. With $2.20 billion in cash against a $479 million annual free cash flow burn, the full valuation, easily stress-tested in a DCF calculator, hinges on when that certification clock starts.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| JOBY | $6.0B | n/a | -62.4% |
| ACHR | $3.4B | n/a | -47.5% |
| RKLB | $33.9B | 923.1x | +2.3% |
| IONQ | $15.2B | n/a | -41.1% |
| RGTI | $3.9B | n/a | -64.5% |
| SOUN | $2.0B | n/a | -71.5% |
The H1 2027 Test
The key test for JOBY: FAA pilot certification flights expected in H1 2027. Any further slip extends a timeline the market is already pricing skeptically, with the stock down 56% year-to-date and 20.9% of float sold short. The insider transaction record adds context: in the 90-day window before the Q3 report, insiders recorded $0.87 million in open-market sales and zero purchases, per SEC filings, with Director Paul Cahill Sciarra selling 62,500 shares at $4.97 on November 2, two trading days before earnings. The analyst consensus price target stands at $9.40. Run the free Joby Aviation, Inc. deep-dive →
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Frequently Asked Questions
What was Joby's Q3 revenue and full-year guidance?
Joby reported Q3 revenue of $55.1 million, beating consensus estimates. The company raised its full-year 2026 outlook to $135-140 million, driven by strong performance from its Blade helicopter and charter operation.
When will FAA certification flights begin for Joby's eVTOL aircraft?
FAA pilot flights for Joby's eVTOL aircraft won't begin until at least the first half of 2027, a delay disclosed in the company's November 4 earnings release.
How many passengers did Blade carry in Q3?
Blade, Joby's helicopter and fixed-wing charter operation, flew a record 44,000-plus passengers in Q3 2026.
What is Joby's current market valuation?
Joby has a market cap of approximately $6.03 billion, though the company has yet to fly paying customers on its eVTOL aircraft, the core asset underlying that valuation.
What insider trading occurred before the earnings report?
In the 90 days before the Q3 report, insiders recorded $0.87 million in open-market sales and zero purchases. Director Paul Cahill Sciarra sold 62,500 shares at $4.97 on November 2, two trading days before earnings.
Joby Aviation raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $135–140 million following a Q3 beat driven by its Blade helicopter charter unit, which flew a record 44,000-plus passengers. The catch disclosed on the same earnings call: FAA pilots will not begin flying Joby's own eVTOL aircraft for credit until the first half of 2027, leaving a $6 billion market cap anchored to a commercial air taxi launch that keeps receding.