Madison Air: $219M Insider Buy Now Underwater at $23.61
Ernesto Bertarelli committed $219 million to Madison Air Solutions at $24.97 per share on August 25, and the stock now trades at $23.61, below entry. Despite beating earnings by 28.9% and carrying a $
Madison Air: $219M Insider Buy Now Underwater at $23.61
NEW YORK, November 5 —
Ernesto Bertarelli committed $219 million to Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) at $24.97 per share in an open-market purchase on August 25, and the stock now trades at $23.61, below that entry price, despite a 28.9% earnings-per-share beat in the most recent quarter and an analyst consensus target of $42.20.
- MAIR posted EPS of $0.31 against a $0.24 consensus in its most recent quarter; trailing-twelve-month EPS stands at $0.49.
- Total debt is $3.19 billion against $260 million cash; trailing operating cash flow is $477 million, implying 6.7x leverage.
- Analyst consensus: $42.20, roughly 79% above the current price; 36% insider ownership, zero open-market insider sales in 90 days.
The Beat the Market Looked Through
Madison Air Solutions manufactures indoor air quality products under five brands: Reznor heating systems, AprilAire air filtration and purification, Big Ass Fans air movement equipment, Nortek Air Solutions, and Roberts-Gordon. The company sells into data centers, healthcare, advanced manufacturing, logistics, and residential markets. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Chicago, it built trailing revenue of $3.75 billion growing at 20.9%, with the latest quarter delivering $0.31 EPS against a $0.24 estimate. At 20.4x forward earnings and 39.1% gross margins, the multiple is not demanding for that growth rate. The flat-to-down stock response is what the insider buy makes harder to explain.
Six Times Leveraged, Zero Sales
The tape's answer starts with $3.19 billion in total debt against $260 million in cash. With $477 million in trailing operating cash flow, the leverage ratio sits near 6.7x, a compression force earnings momentum rarely overcomes on its own. When Bertarelli committed $219 million on August 25, the same-day 8-K disclosed a material definitive agreement and unregistered equity sales, and Form 4 filings showed grants to Larry Gies valued at roughly $620 million. Zero open-market insider sales crossed in the 90-day window; the insiders were buyers at a price the stock has since moved below, per Madison Air's current readings.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAIR | $11.8B | 20.4x | -21.3% |
| AVEX | $718M | 15.0x | -55.7% |
| ACAI | $0M | n/a | +100.0% |
| ARXS | $21.8B | 36.5x | +34.2% |
| INIO | $11.1B | 17.3x | -45.7% |
| GLUX | $0M | n/a | 0.0% |
The Variable That Settles the Argument
Operating cash flow is the number that determines what comes next. A deterioration below $477 million in coming quarters raises the leverage multiple and validates the market's discount; sustained improvement shifts the odds toward the analyst consensus of $42.20. The next earnings release is the nearest test: whether revenue growth holds above 20% and whether OCF is flat or higher. CEO Jill Wyant had 140,445 shares withheld for taxes at $23.08 in October, a routine disposition consistent with retained economic exposure. Short interest at 7.8% of float does not suggest a structural short thesis. Run the free Madison Air Solutions Corporation deep-dive →
Basis Report is independent research for informational purposes. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who bought Madison Air stock in August?
Ernesto Bertarelli committed $219 million to Madison Air Solutions Corporation at $24.97 per share in an open-market purchase on August 25. The stock now trades at $23.61, below his entry price.
Did Madison Air beat earnings?
Yes. Madison Air posted EPS of $0.31 against a $0.24 consensus in its most recent quarter, representing a 28.9% earnings-per-share beat. Trailing-twelve-month EPS stands at $0.49.
What's the analyst target for Madison Air?
Analyst consensus is $42.20 per share, roughly 79% above the current price of $23.61. The forward outlook hinges on whether operating cash flow sustains above $477 million in coming quarters.
What's Madison Air's leverage ratio?
Madison Air carries $3.19 billion in total debt against $260 million in cash, producing a 6.7x leverage ratio against $477 million in trailing operating cash flow. This leverage level is a compression force that earnings momentum rarely overcomes on its own.
In August, investor Ernesto Bertarelli committed $219 million to Madison Air Solutions at $24.97 a share in an open-market purchase. The stock now trades at $23.61 — below that entry price — even as the company delivered a 28.9% earnings-per-share beat in its most recent quarter and analysts maintain an average price target of $42.20.