TG Therapeutics: 29% Rally, Four Straight EPS Misses
TG Therapeutics hit a 52-week high on BRIUMVI's 70.3% revenue growth to $800 million trailing, yet the company has missed EPS consensus for four consecutive quarters, the most recent by 88.9%. With 82
TG Therapeutics 29% Rally Meets Four-Quarter EPS Miss
NEW YORK, August 22 —
TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX) has built its 29% three-month rally on BRIUMVI's 70.3% trailing revenue growth while missing EPS consensus estimates for four consecutive quarters, the latest by 88.9%. The stock hit a 52-week high last week, yet TTM operating cash flow stands at just $18 million against gross margins of 82.4%, a divergence that frames the whole investment debate.
- TTM revenue: $800 million, up 70.3% year-over-year. Analyst consensus target: $69.71, 28% above the $54.27 close.
- Four straight EPS misses; most recent quarter delivered $0.05 actual vs. $0.44 consensus, an 88.9% shortfall.
- Gross margin: 82.4%. TTM operating cash flow: $18 million. Short interest: 27.7% of float.
82% Margins, $18 Million in Cash Flow
An 82.4% gross margin should, in theory, print cash. TG Therapeutics' BRIUMVI, approved for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis, has found commercial traction, lifting trailing revenue to $800 million. Somewhere between that margin and the bank account, though, most of the economics disappear: TTM operating cash flow is $18 million and free cash flow $59 million, against $550 million in cash and $750 million in debt. The company is a single-product biopharma scaling its first approved therapy; those commercialization costs are real. Whether the ramp eventually converts gross profit to operating cash or expenses simply rise to meet revenue is the open question underneath the stock price.
A Pattern, Not a Quarter
Four consecutive EPS misses is not noise; the most recent, at 88.9%, is the worst of the four. The prior three quarters each missed consensus by double digits, ranging from 27.5% to 57.7%, per the company's August 3 earnings filing. Bullish retail investors pushed the stock to fresh 52-week highs regardless; institutionals, who hold 74.2% of shares outstanding, appear similarly constructive. Short interest at 27.7% of float represents sustained bearish conviction that the longs, so far, have not needed to acknowledge.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| TGTX | $8.3B | 18.3x | +84.3% |
| AXSM | $10.9B | 41.3x | +78.6% |
| AUPH | $2.2B | 15.6x | +40.7% |
| IOVA | $3.8B | n/a | +227.7% |
| KPTI | $44M | n/a | -68.9% |
| MDGL | $11.9B | 53.7x | +25.4% |
Operating Leverage Is the Verdict
At a forward P/E of 18.3x and a $54.27 stock price, the implied forward EPS is roughly $2.97, barely above trailing twelve-month EPS of $2.94. The market is pricing near-zero incremental earnings growth despite the revenue ramp, suggesting investors are anchoring to top-line momentum rather than near-term profitability. The key input is operating leverage: how much of BRIUMVI's revenue ramp converts to operating cash flow, a sensitivity best tested in the DCF calculator. The thesis holds if BRIUMVI converts its momentum into material operating cash; it breaks if a fifth consecutive miss signals the pattern is structural, not transitional. Run the free TG Therapeutics, Inc. deep-dive →
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Frequently Asked Questions
Has TG Therapeutics missed earnings estimates recently?
TG Therapeutics has missed EPS consensus estimates for four consecutive quarters. The most recent quarter delivered $0.05 actual versus $0.44 consensus, an 88.9% shortfall. The prior three quarters each missed by between 27.5% and 57.7%.
What is BRIUMVI's trailing revenue?
BRIUMVI drove TG Therapeutics' trailing twelve-month revenue to $800 million, a 70.3% year-over-year increase. BRIUMVI is approved for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. TG Therapeutics is a single-product biopharma scaling this as its first approved therapy.
Why is TG Therapeutics' operating cash flow so low?
Despite gross margins of 82.4%, TG Therapeutics reported TTM operating cash flow of just $18 million against free cash flow of $59 million. The article attributes the gap to commercialization costs associated with scaling BRIUMVI. The open question is whether the revenue ramp converts to operating cash or expenses simply rise to meet it.
What is TG Therapeutics' short interest?
. Despite that position, retail investors described as bullish pushed the stock to a 52-week high. Institutional holders at 74.2% of shares outstanding appear similarly constructive.
What is the analyst price target for TG Therapeutics?
The analyst consensus target is $69.71, approximately 28% above the $54.27 close referenced in the article. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 18.3x, implying a forward EPS of roughly $2.97, barely above the trailing twelve-month EPS of $2.94.
TG Therapeutics stock has climbed 29% over three months to a 52-week high, with the most recent session adding another 4% as investors reassess the BRIUMVI growth story. The rally coexists with four consecutive EPS misses, the most recent of which came in 88.9% below consensus.