What is an earnings surprise in stocks?

An earnings surprise occurs when a company reports EPS (earnings per share) that differs meaningfully from the analyst consensus estimate. A positive surprise — beating the consensus — typically drives the stock price up on the day results are released. A negative surprise — missing the consensus — typically causes a decline. Surprise magnitude is calculated as (actual EPS minus estimated EPS) divided by the absolute value of estimated EPS, expressed as a percentage.

How are analyst EPS estimates calculated?

Sell-side analysts build financial models that project a company's revenue, margins, and earnings based on management guidance, industry data, and proprietary channel checks. The consensus estimate is the average (or median) of all published forecasts for a given quarter. Most analysts anchor heavily to management's own guidance, so the consensus often reflects the company's stated expectations rather than independent analysis.

Does beating earnings estimates always push a stock higher?

Not always. A stock can fall even after beating earnings if the guidance for the next quarter disappoints, if the beat came from one-time items rather than core operations, or if the stock was already priced for an exceptional result. The market reacts to the gap between what was expected and what was delivered — including forward-looking commentary — not the beat or miss in isolation.

What is a good earnings surprise percentage?

Historically, the average S&P 500 company beats consensus EPS estimates by roughly 3 to 5% in a typical quarter. A surprise above 10% is considered a significant beat and has historically correlated with meaningful near-term price appreciation. Surprises above 20% are large outliers and often reflect either a genuine acceleration in the business or analyst estimates that were materially too conservative.

How does the 1-day return relate to the earnings surprise?

The 1-day return on the earnings report date measures how the market priced the new information. Large beats do not always produce large 1-day gains if the expectation for a beat was already priced in — this is called 'buying the rumor and selling the news.' Conversely, a modest miss can produce a large single-day decline if investors had expected a beat. Comparing surprise magnitude to 1-day return reveals how much the consensus was anticipating the result.

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Q2 2026 Earnings Surprises: Biggest Beats and Misses

Ranked by EPS surprise magnitude — the stocks that most exceeded or missed analyst expectations this earnings season.

By Basis Report Editorial DeskReviewed by Basis Report Methodology TeamLast updated October 25, 2026Methodology

BEATS

Biggest Beats This Week

Companies that reported EPS significantly above analyst consensus estimates.

Ticker	Company	Est. EPS	Actual EPS	Surprise %	1-Day Return	Report Date
SEDG	SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.	$0.00	$0.05	+1195.3%	—	2026-06-30
AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	$1.83	$5.75	+214.9%	—	2026-06-30
GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	$2.90	$9.11	+214.2%	—	2026-06-30
WBD	Warner Bros. Discovery Inc	$-0.11	$0.06	+153.9%	—	2026-06-30
DLTR	Dollar Tree, Inc.	$1.14	$2.70	+136.1%	—	2026-07-31
INTC	Intel Corporation	$0.22	$0.42	+94.6%	—	2026-06-30
CRM	Salesforce, Inc.	$3.27	$5.90	+80.4%	—	2026-07-31
BIIB	Biogen Inc.	$2.03	$3.60	+77.4%	—	2026-06-30
TGT	Target Corporation	$2.34	$4.11	+75.8%	—	2026-07-31
LULU	lululemon athletica inc.	$1.79	$2.92	+63.3%	—	2026-07-31

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MISSES

Biggest Misses This Week

Companies that reported EPS significantly below analyst consensus estimates.

Ticker	Company	Est. EPS	Actual EPS	Surprise %	1-Day Return	Report Date
COIN	Coinbase Global, Inc.	$-0.23	$-1.36	-487.5%	—	2026-06-30
ETSY	Etsy, Inc.	$0.73	$-0.36	-149.1%	—	2026-06-30
BA	The Boeing Company	$-0.31	$-0.76	-141.5%	—	2026-06-30
VICI	VICI Properties Inc.	$0.71	$0.48	-31.7%	—	2026-06-30
META	Meta Platforms, Inc.	$5.46	$3.83	-29.9%	—	2026-09-30
DUOL	Duolingo, Inc.	$1.54	$1.24	-19.7%	—	2026-06-30
BAC	Bank of America Corporation	$1.11	$0.91	-17.8%	—	2026-09-30
WELL	Welltower Inc.	$0.65	$0.54	-16.9%	—	2026-06-30
DLR	Digital Realty Trust, Inc.	$0.73	$0.62	-15.0%	—	2026-06-30
CELH	Celsius Holdings, Inc.	$0.42	$0.36	-13.9%	—	2026-06-30

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METHODOLOGY

How This Data Is Compiled

Data sourced via Yahoo Finance for 200 liquid large-cap tickers. Surprise % is calculated as (actual EPS − estimated EPS) / |estimated EPS| × 100. Rows with null or zero estimates are excluded. Refreshed every Sunday at 1am UTC. 1-Day Return % reflects the stock's change on the day results were reported.

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