What to verify before the story gets exciting
Most bad research starts with assumptions that never get written down. Use this section to force discipline before you let the upside case take over.
Anchor the work in what part of the model customers are actually paying for: brand, convenience, financing, or scarcity
Check this off only after you have a specific answer. Generic sector commentary is not diligence.
Why it matters
The best discretionary names keep comping because they own brand, habit, or experience - not because consumers happened to spend more this quarter.
When it matters
Use it before initiating, adding, or defending a position after a sharp move.
Investor take
If the answer depends on trusting management language alone, leave the box unchecked and keep digging.
Start by answering how much of recent demand was pulled forward
Check this off only after you have a specific answer. Generic sector commentary is not diligence.
Why it matters
The best discretionary names keep comping because they own brand, habit, or experience - not because consumers happened to spend more this quarter.
When it matters
Use it before initiating, adding, or defending a position after a sharp move.
Investor take
If the answer depends on trusting management language alone, leave the box unchecked and keep digging.
Write down can the company still grow if promotions have to normalize
Check this off only after you have a specific answer. Generic sector commentary is not diligence.
Why it matters
The best discretionary names keep comping because they own brand, habit, or experience - not because consumers happened to spend more this quarter.
When it matters
Use it before initiating, adding, or defending a position after a sharp move.
Investor take
If the answer depends on trusting management language alone, leave the box unchecked and keep digging.
Do not skip is the store or channel footprint getting better, or just bigger
Check this off only after you have a specific answer. Generic sector commentary is not diligence.
Why it matters
The best discretionary names keep comping because they own brand, habit, or experience - not because consumers happened to spend more this quarter.
When it matters
Use it before initiating, adding, or defending a position after a sharp move.
Investor take
If the answer depends on trusting management language alone, leave the box unchecked and keep digging.
Pressure-test what consumer assumption is embedded in the stock today
Check this off only after you have a specific answer. Generic sector commentary is not diligence.
Why it matters
The best discretionary names keep comping because they own brand, habit, or experience - not because consumers happened to spend more this quarter.
When it matters
Use it before initiating, adding, or defending a position after a sharp move.
Investor take
If the answer depends on trusting management language alone, leave the box unchecked and keep digging.