HCC Insiders Sold $11M at Peak; Stock Now Trails
Warrior Met Coal's CEO and three other insiders sold $11.59 million in shares at prices between $104 and $110 in the five days following a 13% earnings beat and a full-year guidance raise. The stock h
HCC Insiders Sold $11M at Peak; Stock Now Trails
NEW YORK, September 5 —
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) reported a 13% earnings beat and raised full-year guidance on August 5; the CEO and two other insiders then sold $11.59 million in shares at prices between $104 and $110, all above where the stock now trades. The shares have since fallen 4.8% to $104.45.
- Q2 EPS of $1.65 beat consensus by 13.0%; trailing twelve-month revenue of $1.68 billion grew 71.3% year over year.
- CEO Walter Scheller sold 100,000 shares in two tranches at $105 and $110, generating $10.75 million in proceeds.
- Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was negative $54 million despite $301 million in operating cash flow.
The Selling Pattern
Warrior Met Coal is not a thermal coal miner. It produces hard coking coal from underground mines in Alabama and sells exclusively to steel manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia, a business whose fortunes track global steel demand, not domestic utility contracts. Q2 2026 looked like a cycle inflection: EPS of $1.65 beat the $1.46 consensus, trailing revenue hit $1.68 billion on 71.3% growth, and the company raised full-year sales guidance, per the August 5 8-K. The stock jumped 6.8%. Two weeks later, CEO Walter Scheller began selling.
Earnings Beat, Cash Doesn't
The gap between $301 million in operating cash flow and negative $54 million in free cash flow tells investors something the income statement does not: capital spending is consuming the business's cash earnings. The company held $320 million in cash against $240 million in debt, a net-positive position. Earnings volatility compounds the picture: Warrior Met has swung from a 235.6% beat to back-to-back misses to the latest beat across four straight quarters, a run that makes any single print unreliable as a directional signal. The DCF calculator tests sustained free cash flow generation, not a guidance raise.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCC | $5.5B | 15.3x | +80.0% |
| METC | $837M | 59.1x | -49.1% |
| HMN | $2.1B | 9.6x | +9.8% |
| SXC | $877M | 35.6x | +34.3% |
| RNR | $13.7B | 8.1x | +37.7% |
| AMR | $2.9B | 12.3x | +60.0% |
The Number That Changes the Thesis
The arithmetic of the CEO's sales is blunt. Walter Scheller sold his second tranche at $110.00 on August 24, above the stock's current price of $104.45 and above the analyst consensus target of $105.17, putting both the market and sell-side estimates below where the CEO chose to exit. With short interest at 11.2% of float, any negative inflection in coking coal demand would carry extra weight. The number to watch next quarter is free cash flow: if it turns positive while revenue holds, the insider sales look poorly timed. Run the free Warrior Met Coal, Inc. deep-dive →
Basis Report is independent research for informational purposes. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Warrior Met Coal's CEO and three other insiders sold $11.59 million in shares at prices between $104 and $110 in the five days following a 13% earnings beat and a full-year guidance raise. The stock has since fallen 4.8% to $104.45 — below every executive's exit price — raising the question of whether insiders correctly read a cyclical peak.