Warrior Met Coal CEO Sells $10.75M as Guidance Rises
Warrior Met Coal beat EPS estimates by 13% and raised full-year guidance, yet CEO Walter Scheller sold $10.75 million in shares at prices now above the stock's current level of $104.45. The company's
Warrior Met Coal CEO Sells $10.75M as Guidance Rises
NEW YORK, September 5 —
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) beat Q2 2026 EPS estimates by 13% and reportedly raised full-year sales guidance, yet its CEO has since sold $10.75 million in shares at prices now above where the stock trades, while free cash flow runs at negative $54 million despite 71.3% revenue growth. The guidance narrative and the exit timing are difficult to reconcile.
- CEO Walter Scheller sold 100,000 shares for $10.75M at $105, $110 over six days following the guidance raise.
- Q2 2026 EPS of $1.65 beat consensus by 13%; HCC now trades at $104.45, below both CEO sale prices.
- Free cash flow is -$54M for the trailing twelve months; $301M in operating cash flow is offset by capital spending.
Sold Into the Raise
Warrior Met Coal operates two underground mines in Alabama, supplying hard coking coal to steelmakers across Europe, South America, and Asia; it has no thermal coal exposure and 1,485 employees. Revenue of $1.68 billion for the trailing twelve months, up 71.3%, is the kind of growth that earns a guidance raise. CEO Walter Scheller filed two Form 4s in the days after Q2 results landed: 50,000 shares at $105.00 on August 19 and another 50,000 at $110.00 on August 24, totaling $10.75 million in proceeds. The stock has since retreated to $104.45, below each of those exits. Every filing insider sold; none bought.
Revenue Without Free Cash
A 71.3% revenue surge to $1.68 billion should produce more than it has. Operating cash flow of $301 million looks solid until capital spending to keep two Alabama underground mines productive erodes it to a free cash flow deficit of $54 million, the kind of capex drag that DCF modeling shows when capital expenditure assumptions shift. The balance sheet offers a buffer: $320 million in cash against $240 million in total debt, a net cash positive position that explains how the company keeps investing while cash runs negative. But solvency is not the same as generating free cash, and Q3 must show capital intensity abating.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCC | $5.5B | 15.3x | +80.0% |
| METC | $837M | 59.1x | -49.1% |
| HMN | $2.1B | 9.6x | +9.8% |
| SXC | $877M | 35.6x | +34.3% |
| RNR | $13.7B | 8.1x | +37.7% |
| AMR | $2.9B | 12.3x | +60.0% |
Q3 Must Deliver Cash
The quarterly record before Q2: Q4 2025 EPS missed consensus by 25.5%, Q1 2026 missed by 4.2%. Two misses then one beat is a commodity cycle, not a reversal. The confirmation the bullish case needs is Q3 free cash flow turning positive; without that, revenue growth that does not produce cash is a metric, not a thesis. The analyst consensus target of $105.17 offers less than one dollar of upside, and the CEO's exit at prices above where the stock trades, executed the week the guidance narrative peaked, carries its own message. Run the free Warrior Met Coal, Inc. deep-dive →
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Frequently Asked Questions
What did Warrior Met Coal report for Q2 2026?
The company beat EPS estimates by 13% with Q2 2026 EPS of $1.65, and raised full-year sales guidance. That performance was driven by 71.3% revenue growth to $1.68 billion for the trailing twelve months.
Why is CEO selling shares significant?
CEO Walter Scheller sold $10.75 million in shares at prices of $105, $110, yet the stock now trades at $104.45, below both exit prices. Every insider who filed sold shares; none bought, which contradicts the bullish guidance narrative.
What's the concern about free cash flow?
The company's $301 million in operating cash flow and 71.3% revenue growth did not translate to free cash. Capital spending required to maintain its two Alabama underground mines drove a free cash flow deficit of $54 million for the trailing twelve months.
What mines does Warrior Met Coal operate?
The company operates two underground mines in Alabama, supplying hard coking coal to steelmakers across Europe, South America, and Asia. It has no thermal coal exposure and employs 1,485 people.
What's the analyst consensus on HCC stock?
The analyst consensus price target of $105.17 offers less than one dollar of upside from current levels, suggesting limited upside despite the earnings beat and guidance raise.
Warrior Met Coal CEO Walter Scheller sold $10.75 million in company stock at $105 and $110 per share in the weeks following a Q2 2026 earnings beat and a reported full-year guidance raise — yet the stock has since retreated to $104.45, below both of his sale prices, while free cash flow remains negative at -$54 million despite 71.3% revenue growth.