StoneCo Stock Up 18% Despite Back-to-Back EPS Misses
StoneCo shares rallied 18% over the past month despite posting back-to-back EPS misses of 1.4% and 0.8%, suggesting the market is pricing in a recovery the company has yet to demonstrate. The November
StoneCo Stock Up 18% Despite Back-to-Back EPS Misses
NEW YORK, October 26 —
StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) posted back-to-back earnings misses as its stock gained 18.36% over the trailing month, an advance that dwarfs the S&P 500's 1.46% gain and implies the market is pricing in a resumption of growth the recent quarters have not yet delivered. Q3 results are due November 12.
- EPS missed by 1.4%, then 0.8%, over the last two quarters, reversing consecutive beats of 7.3% and 7.2%.
- Analysts set a $15.23 consensus price target against a $11.48 current price; full-year 2026 EPS projected to grow 37.65%.
- Director Silvio Jose Morais sold 21,000 shares at $9.91 on September 2, 2026, for $208,110 in total proceeds.
The Pattern Break
StoneCo operates Brazil's payment infrastructure under its Stone, tonstone, and paggar.me brands, processing Pix instant transfers, split payments, and tap-on-phone transactions for merchants across online, offline, and omni-channel channels. For the two quarters preceding the current streak, the company posted upside surprises of 7.3% and 7.2% against consensus. What followed was a 1.4% EPS shortfall and then a 0.8% miss. A gross margin of 71.6% signals the underlying business model remains intact, so the slippage appears execution-level rather than structural. Two consecutive misses against a surging stock price is a gap the upcoming earnings report will either close or widen.
What Institutions Are Betting On
A consensus analyst price target of $15.23 sits well above the current trading level of $11.48, and full-year 2026 EPS is projected to grow 37.65%. That optimism, held by institutional investors owning 83.7% of shares outstanding, rests on the assumption that the execution gap closes rather than compounds. The Q3 estimate of $0.50 EPS, up 16.28% year over year, and revenue of $710 million, up 8.45%, would validate that thesis if beaten; a DCF analysis can help calibrate how much of that growth is already in the price. Short interest at 6.7% signals skepticism, but remains a minority position.
| Ticker | Mkt cap | Fwd P/E | 52-wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| STNE | $2.6B | 4.8x | -40.8% |
| PAGS | $3.2B | 6.0x | +15.0% |
| FSLY | $3.9B | 38.0x | +193.4% |
| TDOC | $1.2B | n/a | -29.6% |
| DOCU | $15.9B | 16.4x | +19.4% |
| FVRR | $304M | 6.6x | -63.6% |
The November 12 Checkpoint
The October rally has compressed some of the discount the stock offered at the start of the month. Director Silvio Jose Morais sold 21,000 shares at $9.91 on September 2, per SEC filings, for $208,110 in proceeds; no other insider made an open-market purchase in the 90-day window. The Q3 report on November 12 is the key test: a beat on the $0.50 EPS consensus validates the rally and restores the beat cadence; a third miss would put the $15.23 price target under renewed scrutiny. Run the free StoneCo Ltd. deep-dive → before the print.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is StoneCo and what does it do?
StoneCo Ltd. operates Brazil's payment infrastructure under its Stone, tonstone, and paggar.me brands. The company processes Pix instant transfers, split payments, and tap-on-phone transactions for merchants across online, offline, and omni-channel channels.
Why did STNE stock rally 18% despite back-to-back misses?
Analysts maintain a $15.23 consensus price target well above the current $11.48 price, and project full-year 2026 EPS growth of 37.65%. Institutional investors own 83.7% of shares outstanding, signaling confidence that the execution gap will close rather than widen.
What is the key date for STNE investors?
Q3 earnings are due November 12. That report will test whether the execution gap tightens: a beat on the $0.50 EPS consensus validates the rally and restores the beat cadence, while a third miss would put the $15.23 price target under renewed scrutiny.
What is StoneCo's recent earnings pattern?
StoneCo posted consecutive EPS beats of 7.3% and 7.2%, then reversed with misses of 1.4% and 0.8%. Gross margin remains solid at 71.6%, suggesting the slippage is execution-level rather than structural to the business model.
What do insider transactions reveal about STNE?
Director Silvio Jose Morais sold 21,000 shares at $9.91 on September 2 for $208,110 in proceeds. No other insider made an open-market purchase in the 90-day window, while short interest stands at 6.7%, signaling skepticism among a minority position.
StoneCo's stock has surged 18.36% over the past month, outpacing the S&P 500's 1.46% gain by a wide margin, yet the Brazilian financial-technology company has missed earnings estimates in each of its last two quarters. With Q3 2026 results due November 12, investors face the question of whether the rally is pricing in a reversal—or running ahead of execution that has not yet turned.