Technology analysis blueprint
Technology stock analysis: how to frame the research before the model
Tech analysis fails when investors lead with multiples and lag on the business. The right order is: understand the unit economics, stress-test the moat, then frame the valuation.
Write the three variables that would make you cut the growth estimate before you open a model.
Measure net dollar retention separately from new logo growth — blended ARR hides deteriorating cohort behavior until it is too late.
Semiconductors analysis blueprint
Semiconductor stock analysis: reading the cycle before repricing
Semiconductor analysis fails when investors use current earnings as if the cycle were frozen. The right order is: place the business in the cycle, stress the competitive position, then build a valuation that can survive the next inventory correction.
Write where you believe channel inventory sits relative to normal before you call the stock cheap on current earnings.
Decompose revenue growth into ASP and volume before extrapolating — price declines during oversupply can make volume growth look like revenue weakness.